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Lebanon's American-Backed Government Holds on to Power
In a surprising boost for the Obama Administration Middle East agenda, Lebanon's American-backed ruling coalition maintained its majority in parliament after the country voted in record numbers yesterday.
Over half of the country's eligible voters turned out for a contest between a government that came to power in 2005 after a popular uprising against the Syrian occupation of Lebanon, and an opposition movement led by the militant group Hizballah and backed by Iran and Syria. Though many polls had shown that a Hizballah victory was likely, in the end the government won 71 of parliament's 128 seats, against 57 for the opposition.
Even before it took place, it was clear that the country's Christian voters would decide the election. Unlike Sunni Muslims who have solidly backed the government, and Shia Muslims who have lined up behind Hizballah and other opposition parties, Christians have been split. Traditional westward-looking Christian parties supported the American-backed government, while a breakaway party led by former general Michael Aoun gambled that the best way to protect the dwindling Christian presence in Lebanon was to look east towards Syrian, Iran, and the rising tide of Shia Islam in the region.
But that alliance appears to have cost Aoun. Many Christians were alienated by Hizballah's use of force last spring, when it brought out its militant wing on the streets of Beirut to fight political parties loyal to the government. While maintaining power in some Christian districts, and while he still leads one of the largest Christian blocs in the country, Aoun's allies lost heavily in the populous Christian areas of east Beirut and the Bekaa Valley town of Zahle.
Because the country is so diverse, and because the region's major players often fight out their political and military disputes here, Lebanon is often regarded as a bellwether for the Middle East. In that sense, it would appear that the region is taking a step back from the radicalism that coincided with the Bush Administration's invasion of Iraq and its pointed neglect of the Arab-Israeli peace process.
That could help the Obama Administration in its push for a regional peace settlement. The Administration can avoid the difficult question of how to continue aiding a country that is nominally run by a group that it considers to be a terrorist organization. Before the election, Israeli officials said that a Hizballah win in Lebanon would make that country a "terror state." A win by the pro-American government would appear to diffuse some of the tension between Lebanon and Israel. For now.
The question is whether this settles the Lebanese political crisis, which began in the aftermath of the 2006 war between Hizballah and Israel. Hizballah and its supporters accused the governing coalition of cooperating with an American plan to disarm the group. Those concerns are not going to go away, and, as the largest party in Lebanon, and as the world's most successful guerilla organization, neither is Hizballah.
One of Hizballah's demands during those demonstrations against the government was that the group should have at least a "blocking minority" in the cabinet, so that it could veto any major government decisions, especially those attempting to weaken Hizballah's military power.
By law, all of the country's religious groups must be represented in the government cabinet. And since opposition parties have a virtual lock on Shia representation, it would appear that the opposition will have to play at least a small role in the new government. So far, leaders from the ruling coalition have been offering the opposition representation in the cabinet, but without the blocking veto.
--By Andrew Lee Butters/Beirut
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1
It's a great day for Lebanon. Finally Aoun, Hezbollah, and their troop of supporters can get of their high horses and let us live in peace. A much needed and long overdue slap in the face for them.
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2
Sophie,
A question: How much does the Aoun's faction reflect the old Maronite/Greek Orthodox split? Is his faction made up more of the latter than the former?
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3
Sohie,
I hope your wishes come true, but I just don't think Hezbollah is the type of organization to respect the political process and take the defeat lying down. Any organization with an AK 47 on its flag uses elections only when convenient. Hezbollah will revert to what it know best to assert itself: violence. Oh well, at least the UN has stopped the flow of arms from Syria.
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4
To the contrary, I believe Hezbollah managed to prove to the majority that it is a minority that cannot simply be skirted aside. To give the majority the ability to sanction and disable the minority, when they are, in fact, not militarily capable to do so, would be a completely ridiculous thing to ask of Hezbollah.
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As for respecting the political process, we saw how Israel and the US (due namely to the push of Israeli lobbyists) completely shat on the Palestinian democratic-election of Hamas. Double standards are so Bush era.
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5
I would just like to say note that Aoun's party holds 18 seats in the parliment, which is the biggest Christian block.
The US-backed Harriri alliance has led the country into a 50 billion dollar debt. Dont tell me its all because of Hizbullah, thats is not true. I am a Lebanese christian living in Christian areas. I support Aoun simply because he is the only guy around calling for reform and actually working for it. In the west, you have a very limited view of Hizbullah. They are some kind of monster. half of my school friends are in Hizbullah right now, and im still in contact with them. they are great guys with fun personalities, but they just happen to want to free their land. Since the oppressor is Israel, then anyone who tries to fight them back is immedialty labled a "terrorist" by the democratic US government.
Thus, all this talk about relief and such is useless. Hizbullah are part of lebanon, and they are lebanese citizens. We must accept them, talk to them ,a nd try to commute around some common ground from which we can build on a more succesful lebanon. Whatever the elections have brought, Lebanon is governed by dialogue and not a one-team monologue. -
6
I agree wholeheartedly with the Christian Lebanese poster above. Very well said.
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Pro-Zionists have a limited playbook. They will use the now-meaningless and interchangeable labels of "anti-Semite", "unpatriotic", and/or "terrorist" to discredit legitimate opposition while effecting their inhumane land-grab and colonization efforts as state policy. Yuck... -
7
How is Israel oppressing Lebanon? The last time Israel dropped bombs in Lebanon was in direct response to your buddies in Hezbollah crossing the border and kidnapping Israeli soldiers (and later killing them). How'd that work out for the Lebanese? Israel doesn't control Lebanese air space, Lebanese ports, Lebanese media, Lebanese borders (except the one shared), or Lebanese politics. That's pretty pathetic oppression.
•
If any country has oppressed Lebanon in recent histroy it's Syria. That's not even debatable. And even Syria had an excuse to move in because of the internecine strife that was going on at the time. Strife, by the way, that had nothing to do with Israel and everything to do with the multitudinous factions that comprise Lebanese politics.
•
At any rate, if you think one election cylce has transformed Hezbollah into a purely political party rather than a militant party, you are mistaken. Political parties and humanitarian organizations don't need AK 47s, missiles, and commando training. -
8
CGTX conveniently frames the Israeli invasion of Lebanon without regards to the years of Israeli incursions in Lebanese sovereign territory, the taking of Arab civilian political prisoners via trespass and capture missions by the IDF (including women and children), and more. Obama signaled the end of the Israeli-victim facade with his speech in Cairo. Get with the times
Israel is finally getting what it deserves and this net of illusions it has built over time is unweaving before us. My faith in humanity restored! -
9
CGTX,
Typical hasbara response:
You purposely eliminated the actual context of Israel's failed invasion of Lebanon in 2006 to support your case.
You have no concept of context if you think that the 2006 failed invasion of Lebanon began with the event the Jerusalem Post and AIPAC labeled as the start of the conflict. I encourage you and others who think like you to read the history and critically examine whether prior events, like Israelis consistent trespass onto Lebanese sovereign territory (including the largest network of Israeli spies ever uncovered), had anything to do with the 2006 conflict. I don't need to spell this one out for you, I hope.
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For the readers, a great read about the government-sponsored Israeli propaganda machine (how Israeli lobbyists think and work to hide the truth):
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/how-israels-propaganda-ma_b_156767.html -
10
Israel occupied South Lebanon for 18 year until 2000, when they abandoned their positions and their lackeys in the South Lebanese Army. Of course, this sudden withdraw had nothing to do with the long Hezbollah insurgency against the IDF.
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Before someone gets all upset and brings up the PLO bases in South Lebanon in 1982, Israel definitely had cause to invade. Once those bases were destroyed and Arafat banished to Tunisia, the reason for permanent IDF control of South Lebanon becomes much more questionable. Hezbollah was formed as a direct result of this conflict.
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The point being that Lebanese and Israelis really don't like each other and Hezbollah is the only Lebanese military force capable and willing to confront the IDF. It also has a political party representing its share of Lebanon's Shia population.
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More interestingly than this love/hate argument between Israel and Hezbollah is whether the March 14th Movement holds together. The Druze had been making noise about abandoning the coalition, but that might only have been if March 14th had lost. Will there be defections now?
*
Also, if the March 14th movement once again refuses the oppositions demands for a veto, will there be a return to the street fighting of last year? If I remember correctly, Hezbollah had promised March 14th a blocking veto if they had won. -
11
Liberty and Nick,
We can go back and forth on who had the greater cause for cross-border incursions/raids, but you both avoid (or miss) the true point of my post: Israel does not oppress Lebanon. So if people are joining Hezbollah because of Israeli "oppression," then it seems they, not I, are the ones falling prey to propaganda.
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12
Well, my point was that there was a CAUSATION completely ignored by you with regards to why Hezbollah attempted to capture 2 Israeli soldiers. That is, you were making Israel the victim when the factual premises in no way could entertain such a notion.
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I don't see where anybody said Israel is "oppressing" Lebanon currently, especially when compared to the contexts of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the millions of Palestinians Israel is really oppressing within its claimed borders. What I do, however, see is a vast amount of evidence (beyond mere accusation) that Israel meddles with Lebanon's internal affairs and has done so for decades now. The Hezbollah movement was born out of Israel's occupation of South Lebanon, when Lebanon and the rest of the world, pointed out to Israel that there was no reason for this type of behavior any longer. Why does it continue to get recruits now? Israel has never changed its land-grab policies, not since its creation. The war isn't over to them until Israel changes its behavior, apologizes for past wrongs in a grander bargain, and gives up any territory it has captured militarily or otherwise that is in direct contravention of internationally agreed upon law. Or Israel can continue being the pariah of the Middle East. -
13
CGTX,
Perhaps this will help your understanding of why Hezbollah exists (Israel's behavior created it):
"A Brief History of: Hizballah"
By Alyssa Fetini
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1903301,00.html -
14
I read the article but already knew the history. Israel invaded Lebanon because of the cross-border attacks. (Read the article again). If there are no cross-border attacks, Israel doesn't and won't invade Lebanon. Hezbollah was created to push Israel out of southern Lebanon. Israel left in 2000. So why does Hezbollah continue to arm itself (or even exist, for that matter)? In other words, Hezbollah doesn't need the weapons for self-defense; it needs them for attack (or defense from a retaliation precipitated by its own short-sighted actions).
•
Hezbollah is not a political party. It is a militant organization that has used elections when it was advantageous to do so. That advantage has dissipated. Beacause it is a militant organization (the flag shows a hand holding an AK 47, not a loaf of bread or an encyclopedia), it will revert to what it knows best: violence. This isn't a prediction, it's a fact. Before the year is out, Hezbollah will unleash its guns under some pretence. Whether the guns are aimed at Israelis or Lebanese is the only pertinent question. -
15
Because Israel's withdrawal was due only to Hezbollah's push and such a withdrawal was not a "withdrawal" in the conventional sense, the same way that Israel never really "withdrew" from Gaza. Hezbollah finds a purpose still because Israel has never changed its behavior.
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16
"Before the year is out, Hezbollah will unleash its guns under some pretence. Whether the guns are aimed at Israelis or Lebanese is the only pertinent question."
Replace Hezbollah with Israel and the potential targets with Iran, Palestinians, Lebanese, or other Arabs -
17
Hezbollah's doctrine of resistance resorts to violent means to fend off an aggressive Israel always interested in acquiring natural resources (like 4/5ths of the water in the West Bank) or expanding its boundaries (see 1967 war). cgtx opportunistically left out that Israel is a militant and violent state itself, with the military touching upon almost all aspects of Israelis' daily lives. Hezbollah is a resistance movement -- a reaction, if you will -- to Israel's belligerence. Israel is armed to the teeth and has invaded based on what everyone knows are false premises. We saw that when they blamed Hamas for killing hundreds of children in Gaza with Israeli tanks. It was horrible policy for the US to follow in kind. Stalwart ally? Ally, sure. Accomplice? Hell tf no.
-Jared Fox
JStreet Contributor
Author of "Not In Our Name" -
18
This is an ideal outcome for Lebanon at present time, now they have a western approved government which allows them to tap in to western financial system, and also a powerful opposition forces which can check pro western Lebanon government, last thing the world community needs is a checkmate by any power which do have a interest in Lebanon and wider Middle-East in large!
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19
Indeed Sophie1980, it is a great day but not for Lebanon. it is a great day for the Wahabist Saudi, the Hariri Wahabist and their masters in Isreal.
In any Election their are winners and loosers, so gongrats to the winners and wish all lebanese a happy days ahead and I'm sure that Gen. Aoun and Syed Naseralah will work to unite to keep Lebanon safe for now.
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20
From PressTV:
Hezbollah says its steadfast contribution to the electoral process in Lebanon disproved the claims that the resistance group would use its firepower in favor of a win.
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"These weapons are not to impose political realities. The people had their say freely," said the resistance movement's Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Monday on the pre-election allegations surrounding the June 7 parliamentary polling in the country.
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"The whole electoral process has proved the integrity of the party that is using those arms," he added in a televised address.
...
He concluded that "we accept the result regardless of evidence of voter fraud, sectarian incitement ... , the lies that were aimed to intimidate the public opinion ... and open foreign interference."
*
The March 14 coalition is accused of boosting its powerbase by returning hundreds of Sunni expatriates and trying to buy the votes of the disadvantaged among the population and this is widely believed to have been financed by Saudi Arabia.
===========================
Is Israel going to now depict Hezbollah as a fundamental entity bent on nuclear suicide if Lebanon decides to go nuclear? -
21
to habibo01: As opposed to it being a great day for the baathist regime of Bashar Al Asaad, or the Iranians? All political parties in Lebanon have their disadvantages, which outweigh their advantages, however sometimes we are forced to chose the lesser of two evils; in my opinion and the opinion of the Lebanese majority, that's the March 14 group. Only time will tell.
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22
Freely? Nassrallah must be willing to ignore the upwards of $2,000 a vote bribes that were passed around Lebanon. Not to mention the hundreds of thousands to sometimes millions of dollar bribes that were paid to candidates to drop out of the election.
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As for its firepower, Hizballah already used that to effect over a year ago. -
23
Jacob,
Not likely. As much as you and the rest of the Netanyahoos want the Muslims to act irrationally, they don't. Here, we have Nasrallah directly saying that arms will not create a political reality for Lebanon.
"He concluded that "we accept the result regardless of evidence of voter fraud, sectarian incitement ... , the lies that were aimed to intimidate the public opinion ... and open foreign interference."
Who accuses Hezbollah of meddling in the election? The only media reports I see are of Joe Biden holding hands with the March 14 coalition and Sunni Sheikhs flying in expats just to vote against Hezbollah. -
24
Nick,
I have never favored Israel's agressive policies, but I don't see the purpose in Hizbollah keeping a separate militia. Where in the world does a political party need to have a separate army? While Hizbollah is a political party, it has a background in terror (remember the blowing up of U.S. marines). While at the time of its founding, there was a need for resistance against Israel, Israel left Lebanon in 2000 and really has no desire to return.While you guys have been arguing who was the "victim" of the Hizbollah-Israeli War of 2006, it was neither Israel, nor Hizbollah, but the Lebanese people. I don't blame Israel for trying to rescue the kidnapped soldiers, though some of that force may or may not been excessive. However, the Lebanese people paid the price of Hizbollah's agression. The March 14th government also was a victim. Here we had a government which was on good terms with the U.S. and the Bush Administration sacrificed them for Israeli expediency. Where was the Bush administration when Lebanese children were dying? Why did it simply hope Israel would crush Hizbollah? Did the Bush administration consider the consequences?
The defeat of Hizbollah's allies in the Christian community is a positive. The war with Israel clearly proves that Hizbollah does not have the interests of all Lebanese at the forefront. Personally, their alliance with Iran should be a great concern. Given Admajinajad's threatening language and anti-Israeli diatribes, why shouldn't Israel be nervous. A paranoid Israel is a danger to all of its neighbors. We know the Palestinians will bear the brunt of that paranoia, but the Lebanese could suffer as well.
If Hizbollah wants to defend Lebanon for the Lebanese, its ranks should join the Lebanese Army. Otherwise it just represents a continuation of what tore Lebanon apart for so many years of civil war.
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25
FHM,
Many valid points. However, let us not get ahead of ourselves by founding arguments on propaganda that is loosely based on truth, but moreso on fiction and fear-mongering. I am referring to your statement that Ahmadinejad's language was threatening. This is a lie that has been repeated time and time again. No one bothers to think critically when they read something in the paper. "Should I go and look at the original transcripts to make sure he actually did say this?" I did. I am in no way an Ahmadinejad supporter. But, I will stand up for someone like him, who is arguably unpopular both domestically and abroad, when he is, in fact, the one in the right. How many times have we heard Juan Cole's mistranslation of his 2005 speech used to mislabel Iranian foreign policy? The official stance of the Islamic Republic of Iran is that they will not attack Israel unprovoked. This comes from the Jewish member of Iran's Parliament during Ann Curry's recent expose, "Inside Iran" shown on Dateline MSNBC.
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Also, let's think more critically about the March 14 coalition. On the streets of Lebanon, a substantial amount of citizens see March 14 as no more than puppets of foreign powers determined to help Israeli policies of controlling resources and land to the detriment of Lebanese citizens. Indeed, the same factions that have allowed Israel to continue its illegal and inhumane policies rallied for March 14.
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To the people, Hezbollah is a resistance. I am aware of their bombing of the American embassy in the 80s, but let's not be one-sided. Israel also has committed acts of espionage against the US (see AIPAC guys now in prison for 12 years) and even killed American serviceman (see "USS Liberty"). Israel was founded on terrorism. Let's also consider that Hezbollah is the people's resistance towards Israeli and Western interference within their borders. It's not like the US and Israel have zero history of meddling in the affairs of Middle Eastern sovereignties.
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You're asing them to put down their arms only 2 years after Israel sent its entire army into Lebanon to invade after helping to precipitate the cpature of their own soldiers in the first place. Also, the largest network of Israeli spies ever discovered in the Middle East was just found and dismantled as of last month.
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So, they should lay down their arms and join the faction that is, by a preponderance of the evidence, a puppet of Israeli wishes?
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Bearing arms for resistance against tyranny is an inalienable right. That's what we Americans believe. Hezbollah is doing just that. We can't ask them to do what we would never do ourselves.
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