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Lebanon Votes: Will Hizballah Win?
Today's election in Lebanon has been billed as one of the most important in the country's history, and it certainly feels that way. Polling stations have been packed this morning, and the country is on a military semi-lockdown. Nightclubs and bars closed early last night, and almost everything else has been shut since.

The electoral battle lines are drawn between a Hizballah-led opposition coalition that is hoping to oust the American supported ruling coalition that has been in power since the 2005 Cedar Revolution pushed the Syria -- on of Hizballah's main patron states -- out of Lebanon.
Pre-election polls have shown that the opposition is poised to increase its role in whatever new government is formed. Outright victory for Hizballah would culminate an almost three years struggle to bring down a government that it views as an accomplice to an American project to disarm the group's anti-Israeli armed wing.
That struggle turned violent last May, when Hizballah militants and forces loyal to government clashed in the streets of Beirut. Though Hizballah made quick work of its foes, such use of force alienated some of the supporters of a breakaway Christian party that allied itself with the Shia Muslim Resistance group. Today's contest will largely be decided by the extent to which the Hizballah opposition can hold on to its Christian voters.
A victory for Hizballah would put the Obama administration in a quandary: Can it keep supporting a country that is nominally run by what the U.S. considers a terrorist organization? So far American officials have only said that they will review American aid to Lebanon if Hizballah wins.
No matter which side wins today, Lebanon's future will be turbulent. The country is divided between those who would like it to be a Western-oriented country open to business and tourism, and those who see Lebanon as the front-line in the defense against American and Israeli power in the Middle East. That's a question that won't be solved by one election. Even if Hizballah loses at the polls, its military wing isn't going anywhere.
By Andrew Lee Butters/Beirut
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1
I demand the complete removal of double standards and obvious contradictions in our foreign policy.
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We all know now that Obama told the world that America wants to win over Arab affection, at least in the diplomatic sense. That is our foreign policy at this juncture, whether one likes it or not. To achieve this goal, we asked our "stalwart" and "unbreakable" ally, Israel, to stop one thing and one thing only: the government-assisted, ILLEGAL colonization of Palestinian land in violation of the Geneva Convention.
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Mind you, we give Israel about $3 billion per year of our taxpayer dollars ( http://www.ifamericansknew.org ). They receive more aid from us than any other country in the world. We even support its unpopular stances, like when it put 500,000 human beings into the streets of Gaza after a 3 week war blitz without a roof and clean water. Or when it dropped cluster bombs in Lebanon's civilian areas in the last 48 hours and killed 1000 more despite being specifically asked not to do so by the UN body. Indeed, the UN, labeled mysteriously anti-Semite (because no Jews exist in other countries BUT Israel), on behalf of a substantial majority of the nations in the world, has effected more resolutions on Israel than any other country. When nuclear or human rights inspectors want to visit Israel, it's not allowed. The US is directly involved in shielding Israel from the wishes of the UN body. We veto, at a political cost, many punishments directed to quell Israel's war-like behavior.
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Also, we completely reject Hezbollah on behalf of Israel. They are a faction poised to take over Lebanon, but we really have no relations with them because we supported Israel's 2006 invasion.
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So, I ask, why should we support Israeli policies and adopt them as our own? Hezbollah can be disarmed ideologically if we only give it nothing to resist against. -
2
Israel's fight with Hezbollah is their own! If they won't listen to us when we ask them to stop violating the geneva convention against the Arabs, then they should be responsible for their own actions. Why are we fighting for Israel? What has Israel done for us except help radical Jihadists recruit more against us with their actions? They incite the Muslims against us. I say we cool off our relations with them before we all become "collateral damage" in Israel's wars.
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3
Um, what do either of the comments have to do with the Lebanese election?
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Oh and Nick, in terms of the US issues with Hizballah, you might want to remember the bombing of the Marine barracks and US embassy. We'll also toss in the torture and death of the CIA station chief in Lebanon. -
4
And back to the story at hand. Andrew, so what do the election results mean?
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5
One has to seriously question your knowledge of politics in the Middle East and ability to have an honest debate thereof if you are asking how this election is in anyway tied to Israeli policy and Israeli influence over American foreign policy.
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6
Nick,
Jacob has a point. Israel has not tried to intervene directly into Lebanese politics since the President of Lebanon they installed was blown up with Syrian help. However, their invasion in 2006 did not help things.
You can't really blame Israel, afterall, Israel does not occupy any piece of Lebanon, Sabraa Farms notwithstanding. The UN says that the Farms are Syrian and not Lebanese territory, so why does Hizbollah need a military faction? Israeli invasion? Please, nothing would please the Israelis more than not having to worry about their northern border.
Granted it was our support for Israel and going after Hizbollah which totally undermined the western-oriented government in Lebanon. We waited until the last minute to aske Israel to stop and we completely undermined our allies in Lebanon. This was a big mistake by the Bush administration. I believe an Obama administration would have asked Israel to have ceased and desisted immediately arguing that its invasion was undermining a Lebanese government which was at least indifferent to Israel as compared to one that would be openly hostile. Israel did not do itself any favors and the botched job removed the aura of Israeli invincibility, something that adds to stability in the region.
A victory by the western-oriented parties would be a benefit to the region, including Israel. -
7
FHMAdvocat,
You are aware that the biggest Israeli spy ring, ever, was caught in Lebanon just recently? I don't know how you can, with any degree of certainty, say that Israel does not interfere with Lebanon's policies in anyway when it has consistently done so to other neighbors (if we exclude the two invasions of Lebanon, etc.) during its existence over the last 60 years.
Jacob's point was that this election had nothing to do with Israel and the US. I pointed out that the US' foreign policy in that region is shaped primarily, if not wholly, by the pro-Zionist and Israeli lobbies in the States. Save for somehow disguising Israeli interests as US interests while the US takes a lot of hurt for doing so, I see in no way why we should tie our foreign policy to that of Israel's.
As I said, Hezbollah is Israel's problem. Why do they need to be armed? Lol...are you really asking this? Look at your own post for your reasons... -
8
fhmadvocate, notwithstanding your thesis to the contrary, your entire post supports Nick's view and not Jacob's. Are you trying to imply that Hizbollah has no reason to worry about the Israeli government trying to grab their land and interfere with Lebanese sovereignty for sole-Israeli benefit? Do we turn a blind eye to Israel's settlement expansion again now? I think I'm missing out on something here.
jacobblues, reading a little bit about the Middle East from a variety of sources would do your credibility a huge favor. -
9
For those who have no clue why Hezbollah and Lebanese politics are directly related to Israel, please read this TIME article:
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1903301,00.html
"A Brief History of: Hizballah" by Alyssa Fetini. -
10
Ah yes, a land grab... 10 years after Israel pulled out of Lebanon, a move that was certified by the UN.
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The same UN that demanded that Lebanon and Syria come clean on which nation owned the Shebaa farms-- something that to date, neither national government is willing to do.
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In any event, my original comments stand that neither your post, or Nick's, has anything to do with the recent Lebanese election. -
11
Israel concedes that it is grabbing land in lieu of international protocols right now in the West Bank. Are you delusional?
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12
Jacob, lay off the Mani. You sound like a moron.
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13
Quoting USSLiberty "Are you trying to imply that Hizbollah has no reason to worry about the Israeli government trying to grab their land"
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That's where my previous response came from. So no Mani, and no delusion. Just the facts that Israel did indeed pulled its troops from Lebanon a decade ago. -
14
What is Mani? Nevermind that Israel reinvaded Lebanon and continues to trespass over its sovereign borders daily. Also the huge network of spies that Nick mentioned above. I'd consider that delusion.
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15
Liberty,
Your response to my post makes no sense. Lebanon was never a part of Palestine. Israel's invasion was to go after the PLO who upset the balance of Lebanese politics by establishing bases in Lebanon. The PLO sought to establish a mini-state in Lebanon after they got kicked out of Jordan. Their presense in Lebanon helped spark the Lebanese Civil War for which Syria invaded with tacit U.S. approval.Yes, Israel has sought to influence Lebanon. But this is not the 1980's and the influence of Israel has greatly deminished. Given that Israel abandoned the South Lebanese Army, no one in Lebanon really wants anything to do with Israel. Any "alliance" with Israel would be the "kiss of death".
As far as influence, both Syria and Iran have much more influence in the Lebanese election. If there is one country who has long interfered in Lebanese affairs, none more than Syria which has used various militias as proxies to fight the Israelis. Iran is another country which has sought influence in the Shiite community.
Nick,
You make this big deal about an Israeli spy ring. Big deal!! Hell, Israel has spies in this country, and our government is footing the bill!! If Israel can spy on its biggest and best friend, why wouldn't it spy on Lebanon, where Israel's enemies use as a playground to plot against the Jewish state? -
16
Does anyone else find it ironic that Israel's first allies in southern Lebanon were Shiites?
I guess if the Israeli government secretly funded the predecessors of HAMAS, anything is possible.
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17
The biggest spy network in Middle East history is uncovered in Lebanon, spying for the Israelis, who dropped cluster bombs on Lebanese civilians during the last 48 hours of the 2006 conflict despite being warned not to do so by the UN and this is no big deal? I suppose the Lebanese should just sit there merrily while Israel does as they wish with their country.
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Or we can throw them in jail like we did in the US, execute them like they do in Iran, or build a counter-intelligence/resistance network like Hezbollah has done based on Iran's revolutionary ideals. -
18
No, FHM, the same country that was built on the premise that their "people" (we should say, "religion") was encamped and cut off from hope of life by the occupiers of greater Europe are now doing marginally the same thing to the Palestinians in the name of a greater Israel. They are a country built on contradictions which they have lied about and attempted to cover up so much for 60 years that they now believe their lies as fact
This is why it's all unraveling now. I love it! -
19
Oh me oh my, a spy network. Dear God whatever should we do.
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You both realize that Lebanon remains at war with Israel since 1948 and Hizballah remains wedded to the idea of Israel's destruction.
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But Israel has a spy network in place. Whatever should we do.
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Sorry boys, but as long as Lebanon keeps its eyes shut to the militant groups that want to threaten Israel and refuse any idea of peace, then hey, its going to be treated as a threat, and rightfully so. That includes, active espionage, including both overflights and spy networks.
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It's amazing how the two of you, living in a nation where the intelligence budget runs over the GDP of small nations, act so shocked. Where is Claude Raines when you need him. -
20
Actually Nick, we should say people, but your lack of a grasp of Jews has never stopped you before from putting your foot in your mouth.
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And it is, ironic (good term that), that you, a person who continues to defend Iran's government for its abduction and torture of journalists and bloggers, cry about coverups. -
21
Nick,
I think you give the Israelis too much credit. They are simply another tribe (albeit a much better organized tribe) set in the Middle East. They make deals and fight just like everyone else over in that part of the world.
Israel is neither the "victim" made by its apologists, nor the "evil" made out by its enemies. While the apologists has tried to paint Israel as being alone surrounded by some awful Arab horde, they forget the Zionists cut a number of deals with the Heshemites who have ruled Jordan for years, that Israel allied with the British and the French in attacking the Suez canal in 1956; that they were prepared to defend the Heshemite king in case of a Syrian invasion in 1970; that they established alliances with Shiites and Christian factions in the Lebanese Civil War; and the Druze community agreed to ally with the Zionists at the founding of the Jewish state and that Druze serve in Israel's military. Finally, Israel has peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan, which covers most of its borders.
Just the same, Israel is not the evil made out by its enemies. It is still the most democratic country in the middle east (though not the only democracy as its apologists claim) and Israeli Arabs enjoy more rights than any other minority community in the middle east and more rights than many Arabs enjoy in their own countries. At times, they have used much more military restraint than any army in the world (and many times they have not) It is the Palestinians that they treat poorly and I think the majority of Israelis would be willing to live in peace with the Palestinians under a truly fair peace agreement.
The fact is the Israeli government has done some really stupid things (what government hasn't?), but the problem is that it uses it dumb decisions in the past to justify brutal actions in the present. No one told the Israeli government to fund Palestinian Islamic fundamentalists in the 70s & 80s. No one told Ehud Barak to offer minimal concessions to Yassar Arafat and then offer real concessions during the second intifada (this was for re-election purposes.) No one told Sharon to pull out unilaterally from Gaza without trying to strike a deal with Abbas, which made Abbas look impotent and gave HAMAS a "victory". No one told Israel to trade hundreds of Hizbollah prisoners for the bones of a couple of Israeli soldiers and an Israeli drug dealer kidnapped in Lebanon while releasing very few Palestinian prisoners to improve the standing of Abbas.
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22
Jacob,
What do I need to know about Jews that has do with Zionism? Zionism is a political movement, almost like Judaism gone awry. That's like Osama's call to Jihad under the tenets of Islam (misinterpretations galore).
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But what stopped the Jews from moving back for 2000 years? Was it force? No, it was the religious texts that forbid them to do so. Zionism is a break from that. It's a break from the actual religion.
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Still, should Israel exist in my mind? Absolutely. My point is and has always been this: Israel has committed wrongs so it must do two things STARTING IMMEDIATELY:
(1) Stop committing more wrongs... no BS, just stop!; and
(2) Apologize and compensate for past wrongs legitimately (and I mean really giving up something precious to Israel so that the Palestinians can feel like they were actually recompensated and not just given something they were owed anyway -- like their own state); and
(3) Enter into the NPT framework.
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That is Israel's roadmap to peace. The Jews now have a homeland...why risk losing it? The Zionists are working against the favor of Jews everywhere by eliminating the possibility of a two-state solution as they turn the West Bank into swiss cheese. Without a two-state solution, Israel will inevitably lose its Jewish identity thanks to simple demographics.
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As for the necessity to spy, why were Israeli spies in the US then? I think part of Israel's rise to power has been all about its spies and button men in key places. This is the type of behavior that makes them menacing to all and a thorn in people's back.
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As for Hezbollah, they are a resistance movement. You want to disarm them in the best way possible? Give them nothing to resist against. Without their justified ideology, they are nothing. -
23
FHM,
Yes, they do, but not on my tax money to the tune of at least $3 bill a year for tens of years. Not to mention all sorts of technological and military cooperation agreements, etc.
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