Will There Be Blood?

Politician's wives at a rally for the Lebanese Forces and other Christian parties on Wednesday night in East Beirut.

Though Election Day isn't until Sunday, Lebanon has already gone on holiday to get ready. Many Lebanese are worried that the contest -- billed as one of the most important in this country's history -- could turn violent. Which is understandable considering that the years since the last election in 2005 have been marked by tumult, war, and political crisis.

But there are a few factors that mitigate against serious violence. (Fingers crossed.)

As part of the Doha agreement last spring that stopped the fighting that broke out between Hizballah and the parties backing the American-supported government, there won't be competitive races in those neighborhoods in Beirut where tensions ran highest.

Also, there isn't going to be much competition in the country as a whole. After four years or so of political upheaval, most Lebanese know where they stand, most Lebanese vote according to their sectarian bloc, and most of those sectarian blocs are geographically fixed -- the Bekka Valley and the South are mostly Shia, Tripoli and Sidon mostly Sunni, Mt Lebanon mostly Christian, etc.  And with the exception of Christians, most of Lebanon's sects are united behind one or two political parties.

The only real competition is among Lebanese Christians, who are split between the traditional parties such as the Lebanese Forces -- who are part of the American-backed ruling coalition --  and a breakaway faction led by former General Michael Aoun -- who had a huge following in the last election in 2005 when he split away from the mainstream Christian groups. Now it remains to be seen if his followers are happy with the new political company he keeps -- Hizballah and the Syrian and Iranian backed opposition.

But even though fist fights break out all the time between Christian parties, so far they are drawing the line at gun play. Perhaps that's because the intra-Christian conflict isn't sectarian (ie between Greek Orthodox and Maronites, for example) but political. So it's common for Christian families to be split between Aounists and the LF; and families aren't ready to shoot each other... yet.

But the most important reason that there won't be big trouble in little Lebanon is that trouble is in no one's interest right now. War usually breaks out when regional powers decide to use Lebanon's fragile sectarian political system to fight out their disagreements here rather than in their own countries. But right now, most of the regional players are in talking mode, or talking about talking, or at least holding their fire. It's now Obama engagement time. But it's when -- sorry, if -- talking fails that Lebanese should run for cover.

--Andrew Lee Butters/Beirut