Back in Beirut
Just in case you missed these articles on other parts of the Time website, here are a few of the things I've been working on while away.
On Iran;
On Palestinian Refugees in Lebanon; and Hamas and Fatah preparing for confrontation in Lebanon
And Syria
Meanwhile, back home, Lebanon feels like an island of stability in a world upside down. The country has so far managed to avoid the worst of the world financial crisis, largely because with the government is so deeply in debt from post-war reconstruction(s), that the country's central bank never let the financial system invest in sub-prime mortgages and other risky foreign investments. The good times may not last so long though: the drop in oil prices means that Gulfies and Saudis have less lucre to throw around Lebanon, and white collar Lebanese workers are losing their jobs overseas and coming home. But still, Lebanese central bank governor raid salame predicted that there might be 4 percent growth in Lebanon in 2009, if there is politcal stability and social harmony, that is.
Which in Lebanon is a big if. The country is preparing for a general election in June which is being billed by pundits and politicians as one of the most important in the country's history. Everyone will be watching to see if Hizballah and its allies can consolidate the political and military gains they have been making since the group claimed its "Divine Victory" against Israel in 2006. A Hizballah-led victory and government would pose a major challenge for American policy -- like the Hamas takeover of Gaza, only this time of a whole country, and it could also be the beginning of a new confrontation with Israel.
--Andrew Lee Butters/Beirut
-
1
Andrew,
I am curious why these elections are considered to be the most important in history. When were the last elections? Does Hizballah expect to make gains since then? Most people vote along sectarian lines and does it look like any Christians or Sunnis are suddenly going to vote for Hizballah? Have there been significant demographic changes which would affect the outcome of the election? Can Sinora keep his coalition together? It is bad enough Hizballah has veto power over any significant legislation and will they hamper the investigation into the death of Hariri? -
2
Elections are important, especially in the christian region where there will be a real and hopefully democratic fight between 8-march and 14-march Christians parties which will probably determine the majority in parliament.
An increasing number of actors (namely Walid Joumblatt end Michel Sleiman)is saying that these elections are only an election and losing or winning wont mean it is the end of the world.
Which is more or less true as, whoever is the winner, the big gamble will take place after the elections when it comes to forming the government. and the question is: will the opposition get a blocking third (veto) in the government?
14-march is against. 8-march is pro. and obviously Bashar al Assad is obviously pr as he stated recently that exclusion of a group will lead Lebanon into trouble. For anybody who knows Syrian rhetoric this is a clear threat.
-
3
Maybe Andrew can provide an update on all of the troops Bashir Assad moved to the border of Lebanon. See if there is any change in their posture as the election moves to its conclusion.
.
.
Or even better, get an interview with a number of the troops to get an update on their attempts to stop the alleged oil smuggling.
- TIME See the photographs behind the art of Norman Rockwell | http://su.pr/1EKACs - 2 hours ago
- TIME Looking for other things to do on Black Friday besides shopping? Some ideas from @techland | http://su.pr/2J92d3 - 3 hours ago
- TIME Holiday movies: Previewing this year's hot tickets | http://su.pr/1WatHR - 7 hours ago
Most Popular »
- UPDATE: Guess Who Came To Dinner?
- Time to panic again! Or, on second thought ...
- Chutzpah
- Checkout Line Conundrums: Should You Get the Extended Warranty? What about the Store's Credit Card?
- Happy Thanksgiving From The AppleGeeks
- Blizzard: 'Who Knows' When Diablo III Will Ship
- Gleeks and Shrieks: Fox Unveils Midseason, Glee Gone Until April
- The Six Greatest Fantasy Novels of All Time
- A Self-Inflicted Expectation Gap
- FLO TV Personal TV: Being a Couch Potato Has Never Been Easier
- The 00's: A Decade from Hell
- Helicopter Parents: The Backlash Against Overparenting
- How to Get Smarter, One Breath at a Time
- Obama's First Year Policies Need Time to Settle In
- In Italy, A Sex Scandal to Rival Berlusconi's
- Satyam Computer Fraud Grows to $2.5 Billion
- A Brief History of Black Friday
- Germany's Doubts About Afghanistan Grow After Revelations About Air Strike
- Workers of the World vs. China Inc.
- A Brief History of Pie
Quotes of the Day »
RSS