Egypt Terrorism: Playing With Fire

Posted by Scott MacLeod Friday, February 27, 2009 at 12:28 pm

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Much of the speculation here suggests that this week's terrorist bombing in Cairo's medieval bazaar, the Khan el-Khalili, was carried out by militants retaliating for President Hosni Mubarak's restraint during Israel's recent war in Gaza. There could be some truth in this, but I doubt it. Sure, the bombers may have been upset with Mubarak's failure to lend Palestinians maximum support. Maybe this motivated them to strike when they did. But if Mubarak's regime were the target, why not strike a regime symbol like the police or ruling party? The terrorists' clear target was the presence of foreign tourists in the Khan el-Khalili--tourists who have nothing to do with Mubarak's regime or with Gaza. Another victim, if an unintended one, was an Egyptian economy that is already suffering in the global financial crisis. If you want to help the people of Gaza, how do you achieve that by killing a French teenager in Cairo. How do you do that by putting even more Egyptians out of work?

Judging from the amateurish nature of the attack, I would say that the perpetrators were far too simple-minded to have any strategic or tactical aims in mind. My guess is that this was a small group of local malcontents, ginned up on cassette tapes spewing radical Islam, waging an idiotic personal battle that they imagine to be part of a greater global jihad against infidels. Mimicking al-Qaeda, in other words. But even amateurs are a reason to worry.

The signs thus far indicate that the terrorists were part of no organized group and scarcely knew what they were doing. The bomb, though it contained a deadly force, weighed only about 3 lb. and reportedly used a washing machine part as its timer. A second bomb at the scene failed to detonate. Egyptian security sources have told government-owned newspapers that the 11 suspects rounded up appear to have no connections to any formal terrorist group.

As Egyptian terrorism expert Diaa Rashwan has said, this week's bombing closely resembles a 2005 attack a few blocks away that killed two French tourists and an American. That attack was carried out by a small gang of men in their teens and early 20s, some of whom were related to each other. The scooter-riding bomber killed himself in setting off his decice. In a bizarre followup a few weeks later, an accomplice of the bomber blew himself up when cornered by the police apparently while enroute to another attack. Hours later, his sister and fiancee, clad head to toe in black gowns, veils and gloves, launched an attack on a tourist bus and were blown away by police gunfire.

In a certain sense, the clutzes may be more of a worry than the masterminds leading terrorist groups. The terror bosses and their cells can be tracked, arrested or killed and otherwise crushed. The real danger for Egyptian society is when the ideas of radical Islam trickle down into the neighborhoods and into the homes of ordinary Egyptians. Or, in other words, when an Egyptian teenaged boy decides to go kill foreigners down the street in the Khan el-Khalili, or when a veiled teenaged girl decides to fire a gun at a bus carrying foreign tourists.

A good deal of the problem is not anger over Gaza but the political and social drift that has occurred during the long presidency of Mubarak. Taking power after his predecessor Anwar Sadat was assassinated by the al-Jihad group, Mubarak has increasingly left the field open to radical Islam. He has slammed the door shut on liberal and secular politics, as with the harsh imprisonment of al-Ghad party leader Ayman Nour, who was finally freed from prison a week ago. Yet at the same time, the regime gives relative sway to the Islamist politicians, allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to organize candidates for elections, even as it simultaneously cracks down on the group's activities to keep it at bay.

Mubarak's regime has been easiest on the creeping influence of hard-line Islamic rules, practices and opinions so long as they are not advocated by organized groups. Liberals complain that the regime has effectively facilitated the spread of Wahhabi-style Islam in the country, which takes the form of intolerant preaching on satellite channels and in newspapers, ultra-conservative female attire, book banning and attacks of various kinds on secularists and Christians.

The short term gain for the regime is that intolernt Islam may drain supporters away from the comparatively moderate Muslim Brotherhood, which poses a more immediate and tangible political threat. The MB won 88 seats, or 20%, in the 2005 parliamentary election. It also bolsters the regime's warning to Egyptians as well as Western governments that the continued rise of political Islam means Mubarak's regime is the only safe option for continued rule in Egypt. In the long term, however, appeasing or encouraging hard-line religion is playing with fire. You certainly don't need to be an amateur to get your hands burned.

--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo