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Now, the Palestinian Vote: Hamas Victorious
So, Israelis have voted. What about Palestinian elections?
In a poll taken Jan. 29-31 by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center, the Islamist Hamas organization is enjoying a surge in popularity, especially after the recent Israeli war on Gaza. The poll said 28.6% of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip favored Hamas compared to 19.3% last April. In contrast, the popularity of the mainstream Fatah party declined to 27.9% compared to 34% last April.
With the likelihood of a new rightist Likud-led government in Israel that replaces the outgoing centrist Kadima-led government, chances are that Hamas's strength will only continue to grow. Kadima under Ehud Olmert and Tzipi Livni held more than a year of quiet U.S.-backed negotiations on a Palestinian state with Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas. But the failure of those talks to yield any concrete results, as well as the devastation of Gaza in the recent Israeli attack, further eroded Abbas's popularity. The emergence of an Israeli government led by hard-line Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who strongly resists territorial withdrawals or establishing a Palestinian state, could deal Fatah another very serious blow.
The Palestinian factions met again here in Cairo on Wednesday in talks on a Palestinian national unity government that could lead to a new round of presidential and legislative balloting in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Abbas won the presidential election of 2005, with 62% of the vote in a contest that Hamas decided to sit out. In light of the political deadlock between his Fatah party and Hamas, he remained in office as de facto president beyond the expiry of his term last month. Hamas then won the legislative elections of 2006, defeating Fatah 44%-41% and winning 74 of the legislature's 132 seats. Amid continued political feuding, Abbas dismissed the Hamas-led government in 2006, and Hamas, after taking control of Gaza by force, has effectively governed only in that territory since then.
How do Palestinians see things today? Palestinians have reasons to be disillusioned with all their leaders. Since his election, Abbas has been unable to advance the peace process begun by his predecessor Yasser Arafat. With the intervention of the Bush administration in late 2007, Abbas resumed peace talks with Israeli PM Ehud Olmert. While greater understanding is said to have been reached, no agreements were. Hamas, on the other hand, found itself increasingly isolated by Western as well as some Arab governments. A Western embargo against Gaza and blockades of its borders by Israel and Egypt made life increasingly difficult for the territory's 1.5 million residents. The recent three-week Israeli war on Gaza, intended to crush or cripple Hamas, left some 1,300 of Gaza's people dead and 5,000 wounded.
Still, the trends are favoring Hamas over Fatah. Palestinians who said they put their trust in Hamas leader Ismail Hanieh rose from 12.8% in October to 21.1% in the latest JMCC survey. In contrast, trust in Abbas fell from 15.5% in October to 13.4%.
More than 40% of Palestinians said that the West Bank government under Abbas performed worse than Hanieh's Hamas rule in Gaza. Only 26.9% said the Fatah government in the West Bank performed better.
If Israel's war planners hoped to deal a fatal blow to Hamas's standing among Palestinians, the opposite seems to have happened. Nearly half of those surveyed said they believed that Hamas had won the war, compared to just 9.8% who said that Israel was the victor.
A close look at the JMCC poll shows some other interesting points about the outlook of Palestinians:
--Latent backlash against Hamas? While Hamas is rising, it's standing may be on shaky foundations. West Bankers who watched the Gaza war on TV tended to believe that Hamas won, with 53.3% saying so. But only 35.2% of Gazans, the people who actually lived through the Israeli onslaught, agreed. A quarter of Gazans felt that the war could have been avoided, perhaps implicitly blaming Hamas for provoking or not preventing it.
--Palestinian despair. The Gaza war seems to have left Palestinians even more disillusioned about the prospects for peace and anxious to avenge the killings of Palestinians. The poll said 57.2% strongly or somewhat strongly opposed peace talks with Israelis, and 55.4% strongly or somewhat strongly supported bombings such as suicide attacks on Israeli civilians.
--Two-state solution dead? Support for a two-state solution over a binational state rose to 54.8% after slipping in recent years. The figure dipped to just 43.7% in a survey last October, increasing concern that the widely accepted basis for a permanent settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was becoming fatally discredited.
--Hope in Obama. More than 28% of Palestinians said the election of President Obama in the U.S. had made them more optimistic about a peace settlement than before. That's the highest percentage ever inspired by a U.S. president. When asked if they were satisfied by the role of the U.S. in the Gaza conflict, a mere 2.8% said they were satisfied, and 96.3% said they were not satisfied.
Palestinian public opinion is a crucial factor in the prospects for peace in the Middle East, but the trends are not going in a good direction. When Abbas met with British Prime Minister Gordan Brown, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi last week, he reportedly told them that a Netanyahu government would mean the death of the peace process.
--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo
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1
What, another blog not about Egypt !!!!
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Dear Scott, any confirmation yet on those 28 Fatah members executed by Hamas and the 150 to 200 men and women shot in the legs ??? Also when the Hamas judge sentenced those P.L.O members to be thrown off the roof after their trial (there was a trial, wasn't there Scott ?): did he specify from which floor they should be thrown off? For example: Did he say: I hereby sentence you to be thrown off a roof not less than 6 stories high and no more than 12 stories high ? Also, any word on that Egyptian student Philip Rizk ? Funny you should mention Bar Raphaeli, but not Philip Rizk.
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3
We the people of the US cannot influence foreign politicals, but we can and must influence the US Government.
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Seek-Learn-Agitate
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BE A PART OF THE CHANGE:
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http://endtheoccupation.org/
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http://www.wearewideawake.org/ -
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Whose Tony Karon ??? Time's Damascus correspondent?
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drorbenami,
I believe Mr. Karon lives in New York City, but I could be wrong. However, he is the best damn writer about the middle east I have read in a long time. He has a web site, though I don't remember the address.
Before you go calling his anti-Semitic, Mr. Karon happens to be Jewish. -
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Why is the "anti-immigrant" party actually the party of immigrants and they seek discrimination against people who have lived there for generations? Because Israel is the only country where an immigrant automatically gains more rights than someone who is indigenous. Thanks to the influx of Russians who mostly came for economic reasons, and with many whose claim to being Jewish is dubious, we have elected an anti-Arab fascist. He wants loyality oaths. Who does he think he is, Mussolini? Loyalty oaths are the first stage of a fascist state and have no place in a democracy. Of course, most of his constituents are not from democratic states. They are the refugees of Eastern Europe, Arab states and Ethopia. They treat the Arabs as being racially inferior and why not? These people are on the low end of the social ladder in Israel and the only people lower are the Israeli Arabs.
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7
dear fhm, my 1st wife was from russia and if you are a good boy maybe I will tell you the story how her grandparents sacrificed their lives so her mother could escape the concentration camps. Second, my personal physician is a professor at Rambam hospital in Haifa and he is an Arab. For an intelligent person you seem to accept any propaganda that flows your way. To continue our previous conversation, since you have read the New Testament then maybe you know that Barrabbas is not the name of the man who was set free instead of Jesus. His name was Bar Abba which means: "son of the father". And Jesus did not call Peter: "Baryona" he called him "Bar Yona" which means: "son of the dove". Why do you think Christians dilberately mis-translate both these names?
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8
The reason I am against Tony Karon is the same reason I am against Scott MacLeod. Scott lives in Cairo, so he should write about Cairo. If Tony lives in New York, as you say, then he should write about New York. But the real problem is his hypocricy (?). Tony and I am Americans. American incinerated 250,000 Japanese in less than 1 hour. Civilian death estimates for Vietnam exceed 1,000,000. Scott MacLeod says the civilian death toll in Iraq is 100,000 (That's 1,400 per month, for 72 months straight Tony baby). Yet Tony speaks of a "blood bath" in Gaza. I don't care if he is Jewish or not, Tony is an idiot !!!
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9
Scott:
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One last time.
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WHAT INSIGHT CAN YOU GIVE US ABOUT THE REVELATION THAT ONE OF THE MOST NOTORIOUS NAZI WAR CRIMINALS HAD CONVERTED TO ISLAM, WAS LIVING IN CAIRO, AND MIGHT STILL BE ALIVE?
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You are the Time Cairo bureau chief. If anyone is qualified to offer some thoughts on this, it's you.
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Surely, this is just as relevant to the middle east as Dennis Ross, Rahm Emanuel, or your opinion about a Jeffrey Goldberg column.
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Your insight would be appreciated.
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Thanks,
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David -
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Please David, can't you see that scott is busy reading Sports Illustrated ???
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11
*sigh* These trite 'statistics' about the horrors of war and such rubbish. Too often, what is exposed is the total ignorance of those writing about death and suffering. The numbers quoted above are clearly intended to arouse 'shock and awe' and even to overpower someone called Tony? Well Tony, in England, in the Wars of the North, in one day in hand to hand combat 20,000 died. That's swords and spears and the like. 20,000 in one day! Cool! Winston Churchill, in his History of the English Speaking People cites the number of 28,000 in one day ON ONE SIDE, but then, he was probably trying to make English History look impressive too! The fact is, the cat is out of the bag and death now will hit the escalators big time. Five and a half thousand million are going to die! That will take out the Sports Illustrated too, I guess. You just can't get good coverage when someone has cannibalised the editor! The journalist? He might be the one who will eat him - how's that for poetic justice!!
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12
You asked the right question, but leave it unanswered: when will the Palestinian leadership allow another election?
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13
drobenami, I can appreciate your feelings about your first wife and your doctor. One of my good friends here was an Israeli Arab. (I took his death pretty hard.) None the less, just because one is a doctor does not mean Arabs are not at the low end of the social ladder. My father got a Ph.D. in Chemistry in the sixties and my mother was a leader in the field of neurology. This is not to brag, but for African Americans, these are rare feats. I am not trying to toot my family except, even though they achieved wonderful things, does not mean the same for everyone. My mother could not vote in her hometown of Birmingham, Alabama until she was in her mid-30's. As far as believing the propaganda, most of my sources are Israeli and not Arabic, some very left-wing, some of them right-wing, and everything in between.
It seems you know alot about what is going on currently in the Arab world, yet how many of these places have you been to recently? You hard on Scott not reporting about Egypt, yet you seem to know more about what is happening in Egypt than he does. You know a lot about what Hamas is doing to Fatah loyalists. Have you been hiding out in Gaza city?
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14
No, I read the Jerusalem Post. Also, the Philip Rizk story was posted on this blog by jacobblues. Finally, I see Palestinians from Hebron, Nazereth, Jordan and, now much more rarely, from Gaza on a regular basis. There is no question they are treated differently, but many people think it is similar to the way blacks were treated in the USA in the 1950's. There is no comparison. There are no: "Arab only toilets", lynchings (although some Arabs in Ramallah did lynch an Israeli), Arabs can eat in any restuarant and sleep in any hotel.Israel has a big arms industry, so in this field they are not permitted to work, but in hospitals and phramacies you see alot of Arabs. Where they have problems are at security checks on roads. So I bus will stop with 30 passengers and the soldier will ask only those who look like Arabs to present their I.D. cards. When I studied at the University of Haifa a large percentage of the students were Arabs and there was a good interaction between the students. What you should consider is that 1) Lieberman doesn't want to take their land, just switch their citizenship to the Palestinian authority. 2) one of the major reasons Arafat would not agree to the final Clinton peace proposal was that it did not include "the right of return" for about 100,000 Palestiians. What has to be considered in these two points is: If Arabs are treated so badly in Israel then why don't they jump at the chance to become Palestinian citizens? If Israelis are racists, Nazis, war criminals, liars or whatever, then: why do all the Palestinians living in exile want to come back, accept Israeli citizenship and live amongst these horrible Jews?
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15
David,
I don't have anything to add to the NYTimes story. Don't see any reason to doubt the word of Heim's son, who is reported saying that his father converted to Islam and died in Cairo.
I'm not an expert about Nazi war criminals much less their efforts to evade authorities, but I imagine the case won't be closed until his body is located and DNA tests confirm his identity.
This AFP story on “Nile Nazis” has some further interesting info:
http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidANA20090205T133702ZIZW88/Nile%20Nazis
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We all appreciate your comments scott, now what about those refugees from Sudan shot by Egyptian border guards ? Do you need a DNA test for them too ????
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Scott, thanks for your reply.
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You said...
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"I'm not an expert about Nazi war criminals much less their efforts to evade authorities"
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You're not an expert on Middle East history, either, but you often comment on it.
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I guess that's why in this case, you linked to an AFP story that claims that the flight of Nazi war criminals to Arab lands is linked to "colonialism." This is just more false history, in line with the selective criticism of Israel and Jews who support it that taints nearly all of your commentary.
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I will leave you and Tim to preach to the choir of hatemongers that frequent this place and praise everything your write. I've learned all I can from your commentary in the last year.
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Good luck at Time. I hear they are going monthly and are beset by financial problems. Perhaps Eileen Fleming will raise money to save your careers. -
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David please, how dare you speak to scott like that, you should learn to temper you comments with humility and restraint like I do....
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drorbenami,
You said your first wife was from Russia. My question to you Sir is: What the hell was/is she doing in Palestine in the middle east?! Also, where are you from?
Finally, in 1948, the total number of jews in Palestine was almost a quarter of a million, most of them were immigrants. Question: Why did they come to Palestine? Why did they ethnically clease the Palestinians out of Palestine?
I hope you give me some insightful answers, thank you Sir. -
20
Oups. I meant three quarters of a million.
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21
Karim in Cairo: Where did Abraham come from ??? He was not born in the land of Canaan. Moses was born in Egypt, his follower, Joshua Ben Nun was also born in Egypt. According to the Old Testament the Hebrews were in Egypt for hundreds of years before returning. The point is that the first five books of the Old Testament are considered: "The Books of the Law". They are the only one's which have final authority. In the 5th book it predicts that the Hebrew would break God's law and be expelled from the land as a punishment. It then says that, after a world wide dispersal, the Hebrews would be brought back (how is not specified). The crucial point, in my opinion is that it also says that the Hebrews would not be brought back because they were a good people or that they obeyed God's laws. What it clearly says is they would still be a stubborn and willful people not deserving of redemption, none the less, because of the promised made to Abraham, Issac and Jacob, they would be brought back. So, if you read all my comments you would see I am an American, my 1st wife is a Russian, my second wife was born in South Africa. There are Jews in Israel today from over 90 countries and they are still coming. In my opinion, this is the predicted time and therefore when I see bad behaviour amongst Israelis, including myself, it seems to me this is part of the prediction. As far as the Arabs who are here now: 1) They pushed out the Jews, Samaritans, Christians etc. who were living here in the 7th century. 2) Basically, it's God's problem. He's is the one bringing the Hebrews back, so it is his responsibility to see that the people who were living here have a place. My final comment is: The Palestinians appear to be resisting the will of God (just as Pharoah did) and all religions teach: those who resist the will of God will suffer.
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22
Yet oddly enough the following poll taken with the same number of Palestinians, using the same methedology, resulted in exactly the opposite results.
a. More supporters for peace treaty with Israel in bombed out Gaza than the relatively peaceful West Bank(70% Vs 62%)...
b. More support for Fatah than the Hamas (47% Vs 33%)- pretty much the reverse of the 2005 elections.
c. More support for Hamas to recognize Israel in Gaza Vs the West Bank (66% Vs 55%) in spite of slightly higher support for Hamas as a political movement in Gaza- and opposite opinion prior to 2006.Why the difference? Maybe because Scotts JMCC poll was made for the consumption of westerners while the AL-Quds poll was made for the consumption of Arabs... and you can interpet that however you prefer.
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23
Thank you for your quick response.
Now, you raised many interesting points, some of which are contradicting, and unfortunately, you did not answer all of my questions.
Anyway, first of all, thank you for giving me your explanation of why jews from all over the world are coming to Palestine. Well, of course, I have heard before from Israelis that Palestine is their "promised land" and that they are simply obeying God's order (or promise) to return to Palestine. Well, I have two main 'concerns' about this explanation:
1) Simply put, Jews do not share the same view about Palestine and the return to the "promised land". In fact, there are many jews out there that are acutally against Zionism. They believe, and they quote from the Old Testament, that Jews were expelled from Palestine as a punishment by God and that they should not return to Palestine until at least the Mesiah's return, who didnt return according to jews.
2) All this talk by jews about the return to the promsised land is actually something very recent. The Zionist movement only began at the end of the 19th century, it was spearheaded by prominent jews who had a political goal, which is to establish a state for the jewish people. The thing that you may not know, is that these early zionist leaders were actually seriously considering creating Israel in Africa! But then they changed their mind later on as they thought that they can use the religion card in order to get the support of jews by convincing them that the return to Palestine is actually a sacred duty for all jews. Do you know that the jews living in Palestine at the beginning of the 20th century were less than 80,000?! Question: If the return to the "promised land" was a sacred duty for all jews, then why didnt they return to Palestine earlier? And please dont tell me that that was not possible because of Arab prosecution or something like that because that is not true and I can prove to you that quite easily. It is actually a known fact that jews were better treated in the muslim world than in Europe or anywhere else.
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Second, I have a big problem with the way you blame everything on God! Like, it does not matter whether or not Israelis do good or bad, in the end, they are following God's wish. You see, I think this mentality is why the killing of Palestinians and their ethnic cleansing from Palestine seems to be an ok thing by many Israelis. In the end of the day, I believe most Israelis believe that Palestine is their promised land and the Palestinians are their enemy because they resist them and want to keep on living on their lands or return to their lands. So, giving the fact that Palestinians are resisting the Israeli occupation, then they deserve to be punished, they, like you said, deserve to be punished, because they are resisting God's will! What is even more alarming, is that you dont say that Israelis deserve to live in Palestine because they are good or whatever, you say that Israelis are "stubborn and willful people not deserving of redemption, none the less, because of the promise made to Abraham, Issac and Jacob, they would be brought back"!
So, I get from what you are saying that whether or not the Israelis deserve or are entitled to live in Palestine doesnt matter. What matters is that they are following God's will and, consequently, whether the Palestinians have the right to resist them or not doesnt matter as well and in fact, that would even bring more suffering from God because they are "resisting the will of God".
And that pretty much explains why the Israelis keep on occupying Palestine, refuse the return of Palestinians, and explains the state terrorism that Israel use against its enemies, most recently shown in Gaza. am I correct in my views Sir?
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Now, just a quick comment, I am always amazed when I hear from Jews their view on God's justice. Like how it is perfectly alright for jews to annihilate their enemies, like what happened to the early Canneatis. Like how it is perfectly fine to ethnically cleanse Palestin from the Palestinians because that is God's will. Am I wrong in this view Sir? Please correct me if I am wrong, thank you. -
24
to Karem of Cairo: there is a problem here because you are mixing halve truths, facts and propaganda and you obviously have never read the Old Testament. A few quick facts: there are 1.2 million Palestinians who have Israeli citizenship. They enjoy one of the highest standards of living in the Middle East. Certainly much,much higher than the average Egyptian or Jordanian. If Israel was trying to ethnic cleanse the land of them then: how come so many of them are still living here for 60 years? And why do Palestinians living abroad want to return to Israel and take up Israeli citizenship ? Wouldn't that be dangerous if Israel was planning to kill them? Since 1967 the sanitation and medical services have greatly improved amongst the Palestinians in what is called: "the occupied territories". Also Israeli agriculture expertise has increased farm production and Israeli minimum wage laws have increased Palestinian incomes. Before the recent fighting in Gaza I spent a week with about 15 unskilled workers from Hebron who were moving office furniture out of a building in Tel Aviv. Each one of these workers received 50 dollars (200 Israeli shekels) plus lunch for 10 hours of easy work. What does a Egyptian working in concrete construction make for 10 hours work? Since 1967 Arab birthrates in the territories has soared. Practically everyone has indoor toilets and running water in their kitchens. People fear "a potential water crisis", but, right now, every Palestinian has un limitted access to water.
In relaton to Zionism: because of the troubles in Europe and especially in Russia, Jews simply got tired of listening to their religious leaders and waiting for the messiah. As I wrote before, nowhere in the 5th book of Moses does it say a messiah will bring the Jews back to Israel. It says they will return, it doesn't say how they will return (read it yourself before making statements). Because of the problems, Uganda was offered by the British as an alternative around 1900, since the Turks controled Palestine (funny how no one at that time called it "the occupied territories"). As you said the idea was considered, but it was voted upon and rejected. It never was the policy of the World Zionist Organization, it was simply a proposal (by the way, in Argentina a similar idea was actually carried out with money provided by a Jew named: Baron Hirsh, but this was a private venture, not a policy of the W.Z.O.).
For your point about Jews sharing views: all Jews believe Israel is the "Promised Land". The only issue is :"how they will return?" The number of Jews who think we must wait for the messiah and Israel is an abomination is very small, yet even many of them live in Israel and the rest of them would like to be buried in Israel.
The part about "resisting God's will" is my own personal opinion. Like it or not, justified or not, the Jews are here and still coming. Israelis have no problem with Palestinian resistance, we understand it and sympathize with it. You want to resist, resist. What bothers us is that you start a war, then beg for mercy and then start another war 5 minutes later. Hamas is throwing members of the P.L.O. off of rooftops, they are executing Palestinians with no trial. King Hussein killed 20,000 Palestinians in "Black September". Personally, I don't think you care at all about Palestinians, except when they are killed by Israelis. In the civil war in Lebanon 750,000 Arabs were killed by Arabs, but the world only talks about the 1,5000 killed by Israel. Hope this helps you.... -
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It is time for the Palestinians to have elections. It is also time for the U.S. and the rest of the world to respect the results. Hamas won the last elections for a number of reasons. First of all, there were contests where two Fatah members ran for the same spot and split the vote, giving the Hamas candidate the plurality. Second, Fatah is viewed by many Palestinians as corrupt and incompetent. Even President Bush acknowledged this when Hamas won the vote. However, for all of his talk of democracy, he has refused to recognize the will of the people. You can't back elections and then reject them when you don't like the results, especially since these elections were fair and without fraud. How many times have we seen ruling parties fix the elctions and the Palestinians demonstrated they did not do that.
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