The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight

I agree that Iran shouldn't have nuclear weapons, but seriously, what are the chances of them ever attacking Israel with them? Other than an idealogical difference, Iran has no disputes with Israel, they don't even share a border. I know, I know, Ahmedinejad wants to 'wipe Israel from the map' (not what he said actually, but I think his sentiment is clear), but that's just political rhetoric. Are his words really that much more inflamatory than ome of the stuff that's been coming from Washington's neocons in the last few years?
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At the end of the day, Iran is a democracy (not a perfect one by any means, but then, what democracy is perfect eh? ), and Ahmedinejad's grip on power is not in any way total. It beggars belief that the voters of Iran would tolerate a course of action that would be 100% guaranteed to bring total anihilation on them.

Pluto,
Even the Iranian public is not taking Ahmedinejad seriously. While he was yammering about whether the Holocaust really happened, the most popular television program was a true story of an Iranian saving Jews in Vichy France.

Why Yokels are comparing Ahmedinejad to Hitler, they forget that he does not have one tenth the power Hitler had; that Iran has not invaded another country since who knows when; that Iran has a larger Jewish community than any in Europe; and there is a Jewish member in the Iranian parliament. (I wonder how many Jews were in the Reichstag after 1936.)

"where are the adults?"
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It has struck me many times over the last year that the positive impression that Obama gives, which people find so revelatory and fresh, is really just that he acts and sounds like a rational person.
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Things have gotten so far off track in D.C. that no one sounds like that any more. "Let's be pragmatic and do something that works" has become the most revolutionary stance.

Scott, I honestly hope than an F-16 drops a bomb right on your head....seriously

"Good grief, where are the adults?"

I don't know, armchair expert. Tell us!

So, prior to 2003 the two biggest threats to Iran were Saddam to the west and and the Taliban to the east. GWB very helpfully neutralised those threats but now they have a couple of hundred thousand US troops on either side of them instead, which is not necessarily an improvement...
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Change scene to North Korea, and Kim Jong Il, who is a certifiable nutter, and one you would have to consider is infinitely more likely to do something rash with his army than Iran is. Why is he not being threatened and harassed in the way that Iran is? Could it be because he is suspected of already having a nuclear weapon, and therefore a pretty much iron-clad deterrent against aggression?
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The Iranians are doubtless doing everything they can to get a nuclear weapon asap, NOT so that they can immediately fire it at Israel, but so that they can stop any possibility of large scale aggression from anyone else. As for the notion that they want a nuclear weapon so that they can 'dominate their neighbours', what exactly does that mean? The American and the Russians before them, and the British before them failed to dominate the Afghans; Iraq is full of hostile Americans; Turkey is a member of Nato (and has one of the largest standing armies in the world), and Pakistan is already a nuclear power. That really just leaves a few small ex-soviet states to bully - and Iran hardly needs nuclear weapons for that.

Um, I guess this is news? For who, I'm not sure.

On August 13, of last year, Ha'Aretz already reported this story as seen here:

13/08/2008
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U.S. experts: Military strike on Iran won't derail nuclear program
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By Aluf Benn
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A report published last week by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) states that military strikes are unlikely to destroy Iran's centrifuge program for enriching uranium.

The report was co-authored by David Albright, president of ISIS and one of the most important civilian experts in the U.S. on nuclear programs, and senior analysts Paul Brannan and Jacqueline Shire. "Considering the modular, replicable nature of centrifuge plants, we conclude that an attack on Iran's nuclear program is unlikely to significantly degrade Iran's ability to reconstitute its gas centrifuge program," they write....
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http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1010934.html
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Or this one...
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U.S. puts brakes on Israeli plan for attack on Iran nuclear facilities
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By Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondent
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The American administration has rejected an Israeli request for military equipment and support that would improve Israel's ability to attack Iran's nuclear facilities.
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A report published last week by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) states that military strikes are unlikely to destroy Iran's centrifuge program for enriching uranium.
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The Americans viewed the request, which was transmitted (and rejected) at the highest level, as a sign that Israel is in the advanced stages of preparations to attack Iran. They therefore warned Israel against attacking, saying such a strike would undermine American interests. They also demanded that Israel give them prior notice if it nevertheless decided to strike Iran.
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http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1010938.html
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One would think that Scott would at least get the timeline right. The major covert action came after the US rejected Israel's request for the munitions and overflight rights.
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As for whether the financial program had an immediate impact, there was the article from the Sunday Magazine that detailed the effort:
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http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/02/magazine/02IRAN-t.html?pagewanted=1&ref=magazine
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And even here, the article argues that the impact is one of long-term in nature (though it was written before oil crossed the $40 a barrel mark on the downside.)
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Of course Scott, your analysis that Israel needs to take matters into its own hands seems to be well borne out by a world that was quite willing to let HAMAS launch rockets at Israeli cities ad-infinitum. Given that Iranian support (and perhaps orders) loom behind HAMAS and its actions, shows why the fighting continues in Gaza through today:
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Jerusalem Post
Iran warns Hamas not to accept truce
By KHALED ABU TOAMEH

Iran is exerting heavy pressure on Hamas not to accept the Egyptian proposal for a cease-fire with Israel, an Egyptian government official said on Sunday.
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The official told The Jerusalem Post by phone that two senior Iranian officials who visited Damascus recently warned Hamas leaders against accepting the proposal.
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His remarks came as Hamas representatives met in Cairo with Egyptian Intelligence Chief Gen. Omar Suleiman and his aides to discuss ways of ending the fighting in the Gaza Strip.
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http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1231424929369&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

"Good grief, where are the adults?"
Well said, politicians do have a mentality of corrupt rowdy child, fortunately military brasses know their limit and consequences of war.
I wouldn't take these military treat against Iran seriously, it's no coincidence by publishing them in middle of current on going war of Israel to divert attention, they have being doing this all the time, when administration want to divert news from impending embarrassing situations, UN human right group just condemn Israel today and no TV media in US so far report it!

Actually Joe, Sanger's piece was only one of two headlines in the New York Times that referred to the Arab/Israeli conflict. Here's the headline to the other one:

January 11, 2009
A Gaza War Full of Traps and Trickery
By STEVEN ERLANGER
JERUSALEM — The grinding urban battle unfolding in the densely populated Gaza Strip is a war of new tactics, quick adaptation and lethal tricks.
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Hamas, with training from Iran and Hezbollah, has used the last two years to turn Gaza into a deadly maze of tunnels, booby traps and sophisticated roadside bombs. Weapons are hidden in mosques, schoolyards and civilian houses, and the leadership's war room is a bunker beneath Gaza's largest hospital, Israeli intelligence officials say.
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Unwilling to take Israel's bait and come into the open, Hamas militants are fighting in civilian clothes; even the police have been ordered to take off their uniforms. The militants emerge from tunnels to shoot automatic weapons or antitank missiles, then disappear back inside, hoping to lure the Israeli soldiers with their fire.
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In one apartment building in Zeitoun, in northern Gaza, Hamas set an inventive, deadly trap. According to an Israeli journalist embedded with Israeli troops, the militants placed a mannequin in a hallway off the building's main entrance. They hoped to draw fire from Israeli soldiers who might, through the blur of night vision goggles and split-second decisions, mistake the figure for a fighter. The mannequin was rigged to explode and bring down the building.
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In an interview, the reporter, Ron Ben-Yishai, a senior military correspondent for the newspaper Yediot Aharonot, said soldiers also found a pile of weapons with a grenade launcher on top. When they moved the launcher, “they saw a detonator light up, but somehow it didn't go off.”
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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/world/middleeast/11hamas.html?ref=middleeast

marvelous article. If the power of wisdom did not contain them and prevent wars, I am glad that other limitations are curbing the appetite. Of course the current Iranian regime is has done many crimes against humanity, but bombing some land will just make the suppressed people to suffer additional blows to what they have been suffering from the Islamic gov't over the last 30 years! And it doesn't do us Americans ANY good. I hope the new admin will do some service to this country, but the damages are so grand that it takes years to even measure them (and being in denial doesn't make it any better).

I agree, Scott, it is time for the adults to move into the picture and normalize relations with Iran for the betterment of US standing in the Middle East. However, I disagree with you that a nuclear Iran will necessarily be a major setback in the region for several reasons as follows:
(1) As most Middle East analysts will agree, Iran's regime is a pragmatic one, with a cost-benefit analysis approach to most of their policies. They don't have a track record of committing irrational mistakes like invading other countries for territorial gain like Israel and Iraq.
(2) To seriously consider that they are a threat to Israel is laughable, given that Israel boasts over 200 "secret" nuclear warheads, with second-strike capabilities. Any anti-Israeli or Holocaust investigator rhetoric from Ahmadinejad has been retracted several times and/or strongly opposed by important factions of Iran's regime as noted by another reader above. Indeed, even Livni, acting PM of Israel, and foreign minister, has said, behind closed doors, that Iran poses no threat to Israel. http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/916758.html
(3)I strongly believe that Iran will only use a nuclear weapon, or knowledge of how to convert their civilian program quickly into a military one, as a shield and not as a sword against aggressors. The threat of a nuclear Iran sparking a nuclear arms race in the ME is a fallacy. What reason would the other nations have to arm themselves? Have they been threatened with attacks like Iran? No, and, in addition, they, for the most part, have the support of the US because of America's oil interests.
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Analysts agree that there is no way to stop Iran's nuclear program. Iran will be a nuclear nation until it decides not to be one, it's as simple as that. America would be wise to create a relationship with Iran whereby Iran would never seek to use this knowledge against US interests. Iran, as you know, has extended many opportunities to the US to normalize relations within the past eight years alone. In addition, there is no doubt that Iranian interests are far more in line with American interests in the region than that of Israel's.
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So, the question remains: what is the apparent aim of an Israeli strike or at least a request by PM Olmert to target Iran? For once (and this happens just about as often as a Hamas rocket kills an Israeli civilian), Jacob may be right. This is not NEW news. Thus, I believe that Sanger's article is nothing more than propaganda aimed at turning public opinion against Iran and to keep its nuclear program in the news while Israel slaughters many poor Palestinian civilians. Let's not forget what is happening in Gaza while we turn our attention to Iranians who have been smeared left and right to no end.

Where indeed are the adults?

“You cannot talk like sane men around a peace table while the atomic bomb itself is ticking beneath it. Do not treat the atomic bomb as a weapon of offense; do not treat it as an instrument of the police. Treat the bomb for what it is: the visible insanity of a civilization that has ceased...to obey the laws of life.”- Lewis Mumford, 1946

Iran signed the NPT.

Israel has NOT!

Iran allowed IAEA inspectors into their facilities.

Israel has NOT allowed IAEA inspectors into the Dimona, a leaking dinosaur.

The whistle blower of Israel's WMD Program informed me:

"No one should ignore the fact that Atomic weapons are in Israel and that it was France most especially who helped build the Dimona reactor in 1960.

"No one should forget that France was the first state to start nuclear weapons proliferation in secret, not Iran.

"The world's problem with Iran is the obligation to help the people of Iran to have freedom and democracy; free from a dictator regime.

"The problem is not nuclear weapons in Iran but the need for freedom for all the people.

"I am not at all supporting this Ayatollahs regime in Iran. This regime should be ended and replaced by freedom and democracy for all Iran people.

"The same goes for Israel too, which is only a democracy if you are a Jew. The Israeli problem is the Jewish apartheid regime.

"No nuclear weapons program is a true deterrent or safeguard mechanism for security because Atomic weapons can only bring destruction. Atomic weapons are a mechanism of self destruction.

"How can Israel, the only country in the Middle East known to have a nuclear weapons program expects all others not to even have peaceful nuclear energy programs?

"Since Israel has the Bombs, then they can not speak with credibility about stopping all the Middle East states from having at least Nuclear Energy, Nuclear Science and Technology.

"Israel by all its nuclear secret activities opened the way for any state to do the same. My view is that Nuclear Science and technology must be part of any modern state and society, so all the world and every state should have it.

"After almost 50 years of secret nuclear activities and productions of bombs, America, France and the entire world should also intervene and demand Israel sign the NPT, follow all of the IAEA orders, regulations and restrictions.

"Instead, Israel puts on me distractions. The real issue in both states is democracy before any thing else and Israel is only a democracy if you are a Jew.

"I fulfilled my sentence of 18 years in prison because I listened to my conscience and reported the truth that Israel was manufacturing weapons of mass destruction. It is over four years now that Israel has held me captive in East Jerusalem; forbidding me to speak to any foreigners or to leave the state, which is all I want to do."

excerpted from:
http://www.wearewideawake.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=939&Itemid=201

Nathan,
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I still owe you a response to your post from last week. But before I get to that, I want to elaborate a little bit on why I think Scott and the rest of TIME's 'Middle East blog' team do such a poor job as journalists, and more so that their writings are little more than biased rants rather than providing real insights into the region.
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Scott uses this latest blog to trumpet David Sanger's front-page story in Sunday's New York Times. He lambasts both the Israelis and Americans, treating them as nothing more than petulant children who need to be reined in, by adults, as he puts it.
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The thing is, David Sanger didn't publish one story in the New York Times, he published two. One that made it to the front page, the other, that was a major article on the concerns over the lack of security with Pakistan's nuclear arsonal headlined "Obama's Worst Pakistan Nightmare". Here's a link to the article: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/magazine/11pakistan-t.html?
pagewanted=1&_r=1&ref=magazine
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Go read it, then go back to Sanger's other article, and realize why Israel is so concerned about Iran's plans for nuclear development. In the Pakistan article, there are several concerns, including proliferation of the nuclear technology, an attempt by Islamic extremists to steal and use a bomb, and/or the possability that the Pakistan government is co-opted or even taken over by Islamic extremists.
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As the article states when simulations of a weapon winding up in the hands of any of these people occur, 'the outcome is bad'.
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With Islamic Republic of Iran, the extremists are already inside the government. Nick will argue till the cows come home over infintesimal slices of translation and intent. Unfortunately for him, the larger picture is quite clear. To date, Iran supports both Hizballah and HAMAS, with arms, financing, intelligence, and training. Both groups not only have a core ideology that includes the destruction of Israel, but have advanced the idea of targeting civilians in their attacks, by any means they have at their disposal.
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Building on this idea, is the most recent public announcement by Iran's government that 70,000 people have signed up to become suicide bombers to target Israelis. Now, one could argue that the figure is nothing more than a propaganda piece, and I can already hear Nick stating that we should note that it was the Iranian government who refused to send these people over to Israel.
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What this ignores is the original claim, that people are willing to sign up to deliberately kill civilians, but that Iran acquiesed to the lists in the first place. Even if nothing more than a propaganda piece, it shows what the government and people are willing to do. Of course the fact that the groups that Iran is using as proxy armies already have initiated such attacks adds substantial weight to the concerns over Iran's own actions.
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What ties both Israel's concern with Iran and its ongoing battles with HAMAS in the Gaza Strip together is the outright rejection of these groups to accept Israel's right to exist. One of the arguemnts against Israel's actions, both the recent fighting, and its previous hostile nature towards HAMAS is that the group was the elected choice of the Palestinians. Unfortunately, this makes HAMAS actions all the worse as it extneds its core extremist political/religious ideology into the Palestinains' own national one, whether your average Palestinian signed on to it or not. Iran has that same philosophy. Not just through Ahmadinejad, but right up through its supreme leadership in Ayatollah Khamanei and the Guardian Council.
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This unwillingness, to let Israel exist as a state, in any form or within any boundaries, is impossible to live with and turns the idea of a quest for a nuclear weapon from one of potential defense or national pride, into a potential for annihilation. Given the potential consequences of such weapons and given their past history, the onus is on these groups, HAMAS, Hizballah, and Iran, to prove that they can accept the idea of a peaceful co-existance with Israel before they deserve in the smallest amount of trust and credibility.

Wow, what a bitter, condescending piece, especially considering Bush reached the "right" conclusion in every instance. I find it laughable that Scott derides the quest for sanctions, considering that is a key diplomatic tool. Diplomacy is about persuasion, but you can only persuade when both parties are willing to listen. If one party won't listen, then you have to get them to listen. This can be done with ostracization, sanctions or bombs. It's pretty clear the Iranian government has no desire to listen to anyone who takes Israel's side or doesn't want Iran to have a nuke. So you have to make them listen through one of the means listed above. Strategy, diplomacy, blah, blah, blah goes out the door at that point.
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Nick, which ME analysts agree the Iranians are pragmatic? There's a paradox here. Iran has a dogmatic, theocratical regime. Pragmatism is not a virtue in that system. Besides, if Iran were truly pragmatic, it would abandon its nuclear program in exchange for international investment and job creation. Ask your relatives what they would rather have--high unemployment and a nuke reactor that the Israelis might bomb or a job and no nuke reactor? Pragmatically, the answer is easy.
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And Jacob--what are you doing on this board making so much sense? Don't you know you're supposed to abandon rational thought in favor of the mantras of "Israel is evil" and "Bush is stupid, Obama is brilliant." Those sensible conclusions reason led you to need to be rejected as mirages. "It's Israel's fault" is much less taxing on the brain and brings an end to any discussion that inquiry that could put Arabs and Muslims in a bad light.

Tying this back to Scott's initial blog, where are the adults. Indeed, it seems that they're not to be found among the site's bloggers.
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It may seem witty to quip about how the Israeli's thought that Bush was too chicken to start a third war in the region (we'll take a pass on the fact that the US only went into Afghanistan because of al-Queda's attacks on 9/11), but the reality is, if he's going to claim to ask for where the adults are, he should be well prepared to follow his own advice.

Oh, and Nick, when you take a moment to stop stockpiling tables, be careful about what you choose for evidence.
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At the end of the Ha'Aretz article you provided, were links to the following other articles published by the paper:
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Livni: Iran poses greatest threat to world's values
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By Shlomo Shamir, Haaretz Correspondent and the Associated Press
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Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni warned the UN General Assembly on Wednesday that Iranian leaders pose the biggest threat to international values as they "speak proudly" of their wish to destroy Israel and pursue weapons to achieve that objective.
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Speaking at the annual General Assembly session, Livni said that the international community must stand up against Iran, which she claimed is pursuing the weapons to destroy Israel, a reference to its nuclear program.
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"There is no greater challenge to our values than that posed by the leaders of Iran," Livni said. "They deny and mock the Holocaust. They speak proudly and openly of their desire to wipe Israel off the map. And now, by their actions, they pursue the weapons to achieve this objective, to imperil the region and to threaten the world."
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http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/765545.html
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Livni to UN: Time has come to take action against Iran
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By Shlomo Shamir, Haaretz Correspondent and Haaretz Service
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NEW YORK - Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni told assembled world leaders at the United Nations on Monday that the time had come to take action against Iran.
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"None disagrees that Iran denies the Holocaust and speaks openly of its desire to wipe a member state - mine - off the map," Livni said during her address to the UN General Assembly. "And none disagrees that, in violation of Security Council resolutions, it is actively pursuing the means to achieve this end."
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"Too many see the danger but walk idly by - hoping that someone else will take care of it," she continued. "What is the value, we have to ask, of an organization which is unable to take effective action in the face of a direct assault on the very principles it was founded to protect?"
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http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/908784.html
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More interesting were comments made by Hassan Nassrallah, that reiterate his extreme stance towards Israel. I'll just paste the link here.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1024832.html

Jacob,
The article I posted from Haaretz cites credible sources who say that, BEHIND CLOSED DOORS, Livni confesses that there Iran is no existential threat to Israel. http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/916758.html
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You then posted articles recounting Livni's trumpeting in public forums, like the UN, about Iran's "existential threat" to Israel. This further supports my article and Israel's game of charades.
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And to further smear Iran, you cite that 70,000 people in a population of 70 million, or 0.001% of the total, signed a piece of paper that said they support the Palestinian cause and would defend them on their behalves by hitting Israel where it hurts. And yes, the government of Iran, who you say threatens Israel's existence, told them not to go and commit such acts. Let's not forget that the Israel Defense Force regularly signs up soldiers to commit acts of brazen genocide, like dropping white phosphorous bombs on Palestinian civilians. The current Gaza invasion has caused over 450 civilian deaths, accounting for MORE than half of the Palestinian casualties. That doesn't include all of the wounded and near death, without medical aid, and those who will suffer cancer from the inert metal weapons used and die off as well. That number is over one thousand.

Nick, you should know about smear jobs since you keep blasting away about genocide. Israel does not commit genocide by any reasonable metric. If Israel did commit genocide there wouldn't be a question of a Palestinian state and there would be no battle in Gaza because there wouldn't be enough Palestinian around to form a state and Gaza would be full of Israeli farmers. I just don't understand how Israel can commit genocide for 60 years and still have all these Palestinians causing problems. The easy, logical, reasonable answer is that Israel doesn't commit genocide, but that flies in the face of anti-Israel dogma.
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And how you can say with a straight face that Iran isn't an existential threat to Israel is a wonderment. Iran funds, trains and arms Hezbollah and, to a lesser degree, Hamas. Both of those groups have attacked Israel in the past two years and historically have attacked with regularity. This isn't a winding, covert, double-dealing, Bondian enterprise; it's very straightforward. Iran uses Hezbollah and Hamas as proxies to attack Israel. If you're going to hold the U.S. accountable for funding and selling weapons to Israel, then don't suspend judgment when it comes to Iran. It's hypocritical.

CGTX,
Speaking of being hypocritical, you should question the Israeli regime for funding and aiding Jundullah, which is an extremist group with connections to Al-Qaeda, in the terrorism they've conducted in Iran, which has killed many civilians. Israel is not a lone target for terrorism in the Middle East and certainly happens to be a state-sponsor of terrorism outside of its borders.
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Why would Iran put pressure on Israel via proxies? Hmmm, I wonder. Could it have been a reaction to the bellicose attitude Israel has presented Iran in the last 10 years?
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I've already responded to your assertion that Israel does not commit genocide because Palestinians are still alive today. Here, I'll copy and paste it for you:
"CGTX,
Natural laws dictate that if population A (Pals) is double to triple that of population B (immigrant Jews and the few Sephardics already living in the region) 50 years ago, it will probably be 8-10x greater currently. However, population is only about 3-4x greater than population B today. And of course, there ARE more Palestinians in Gaza today because that's where they were forced to travel from their original residences inside what is now considered Israel by the West. As I said before, Palestinians who live in Gaza are not FROM Gaza. Israel has restraints. They are not all powerful. Indeed, we saw that in 2006 and continue to see it while they level empty threats against a far more powerful Iran. They also have a weakness against bad PR. They cannot simply commit mass genocide using nuclear weapons and such. But they do it very subtly and the numbers show: there is a slow genocide being committed."
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Genocide is not an all or nothing term. It has been and is currently being committed by Israel. Watch CNN if PressTV is too biased for you. Israel will be facing many legal problems soon.

Nick,
Ummm, what "natural laws?" For a long time, Denmark had zero population growth. Does that mean the Danes were victims of genocide?
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Just because there aren't 15x the number of Palestinians living in Gaza doesn't mean the Israelis killed the rest of them. There is a diaspora of Palestinians throughout the Mideast. Why do you think Hezbollah is so strong in Lebanon? Why do you think Jordan won't let Palestinians become citizens? Because Palestinians continue to have children at the same rate dictated by natural laws. Palestinians haven't been wiped out in Gaza. They've just moved elsewhere. (By the way, the growth rate of the population in Gaza is 3.5%, about double what it is for Jewish Israelis. Oh, no! Both sides are commiting genocide! There will be nothing left but goats and olive trees pretty soon.)