Election Day in Baghdad

It was well past daybreak in Baghdad Wednesday when President-elect Barak Obama finally gave his acceptance speach. Afterwards, I pulled back the curtains from the windows in the television room of the New York Times bureau where I'd been gathered with friends to watch the results since 3 am, and blearily gazed out towards the Tigris River, half-expecting to see the city transformed by the dawn of a new era in American history. But of course, all I saw was blast walls, checkpoints, helicopters, and the anxious calm of a country that is still at war with itself.

Witnessing the American election from afar in Iraq has been something of an anti-climax. In the beginning of the presidential race two years ago, it looked like Iraq was going to be the central issue. The American financial meltdown, and the tentative success of the "surge" changed all that. Nor was the much was their much election action in Iraq itself to cover. Those of the 152,00 American service men and women who voted did so by absentee ballot well before election day, and all were under orders not to discuss politics with reporters.

Moreover, while Obama's victory may have transformed overnight America's reputation in the rest of the world, it will have less impact on the course of events in Iraq than one would have expected from listening to the campaigns. John McCain had promised to stay the course in Iraq until "victory" -- whatever that means. But in reality, nearly everyone else wants us out: the Iraqi people, the Iraqi government, the Bush Administration, the Pentagon, and Obama, not to mention the troops themselves.

The only question is how quickly we go. Bush wants us out by the beginning of 2012. Obama wants to pull at least half of our soldiers out by 2010. The Iraqi government seems less concerned with actual details of a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) -- which would set a timetable for withdrawal, but also legitimize the continued American occupation until that date -- than with appearing to stand up to the American occupation.

Though they appear to have softened their stance now that Obama has been elected, the Iraqi government has been sitting on the SOFA. They seem to be under the impression that they can wait until the Obama administration comes to power and then cut a better deal. But the UN mandate that currently legalizes the American presence expires on midnight December 31st of this year, and Obama won't take office until Jan 20th. Without a SOFA during that interim period, all American projects would cease, and all American troops would withdraw from Iraqi cities and towns and hunker down on their bases and watch whatever chaos ensues. Imagine not so much the Fall of Saigon, but Escape from New York.

So it's either fortuitous or ironic that the US just completed its massive $750 million new embassy complex, which is built to house some 1,000 staff members in luxury bomb shelter conditions complete with tennis court and missile defense system. The building is meant is be the new focus of American influence in Iraq -- a pool of technical talent that will help manage reconstruction and governance. But already it's clear that the embassy -- which will cost over $1 billion a year to operate -- is a prime target not just for insurgent mortar fire but also for the inevitable budget cutting in an increasingly cash-strapped Washington.

Still, Election Day in Baghdad was not without its special moments. The new embassy -- which looks like a cross between a liberal arts college campus and a maximum security prison -- held its first public event yesterday, a reception for foreign dignitaries, Iraqi officials and members of the press. Ambassador Ryan Crocker's speech emphasized the lessons to be learned by the smooth transfer of power between rival parties by democratic means, a speech which on another day might have sounded like a lecture. But it's hard for any American in the Middle East not to be thrilled by the fact that our country -- which has its own history of sectarianism and civil war -- is once again practicing what we preach. "It's a great day to be an American," I overheard one official say to another as they clinked glasses of fruit juice. "Amen," replied the friend.

--Andrew Lee Butters/Baghdad