Arab Hearts & Minds: Obama vs. McCain

Posted by Scott MacLeod Wednesday, October 29, 2008 at 6:03 am

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Barack Obama has inspired new hope in a troubled Middle East. Some of that is due to Obama's actual policies and conciliatory demeanor, alot of it is based on a gut feeling that he'll be more understanding and fairer to the Arab and Muslim world, not least because of his own Muslim roots and middle name. No small part of Obama's popularity is because Obama is not George Bush, who became widely loathed in the region for invading Iraq, waging a war on terrorism that many regard as a Crusade against Islam and supporting Israel to the hilt.

Views of Obama vary, depending on who you talk to and where they live, but he's generally viewed favorably as a man of diplomacy, who wants to withdraw American forces from Iraq, speak more respectfully to the Muslim world and rededicate Washington to resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. Yet few in the Arab world are ready to proclaim Obama a savior quite yet. Cynicism runs deep, with a strong belief among Arab rulers and citizens alike that the pro-Israel lobby keeps the U.S. permanently tilted in favor of the Jewish state. Judging from discussions I've had with senior officials across the region in the last few weeks, lurking beneath the hope is a growing concern that Obama will ultimately downplay Arab interests and prove too naïve in handling the rise of a nuclear Iran. Many Arab policymakers are rooting for Obama less out of love for Obama than because they're more wary of John McCain, who they consider too fond of the Bush administration's Middle East policies.

Of the hopes, the greatest is reserved for Obama's commitment to the Arab-Israeli peace process, from which the Bush administration largely disengaged during its first six years in office. They believe his promise to get started on the peace process from day one and don't believe that McCain has the same degree of interest or commitment. Yet, some of the initial enthusiasm for Obama has been tempered by his pro-Israel speech last June to the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee. Arabs objected when he declared that “Jerusalem will remain the capital of Israel and it must remain undivided”—a controversial position he later tried to qualify by saying the city's status was subject to future negotiations.

While McCain dismays Arab officials by relying on neoconservative advisors with a relative lack of interest in peace negotiations, he inspires equal if not more confidence than Obama in handling other major issues like Iraq and Iran. Obama's call for an American withdrawal from Iraq is popular on the Arab street, but governments worry that he would be more likely than McCain to allow a precipitous pullout that could enable Iran to fill a regional power vacuum. They fear that Obama could play political games with the pullout, more intent on proving he was right about the war than on making sure the ultimate outcome is best for the region.

The biggest concern Arabs have with Obama is his proposal to offer Iran presidential-level talks aimed at defusing the growing confrontation over the Islamic regime's nuclear program. In this instance, officials seem more comfortable with McCain's adoption of Bush's more outwardly tougher approach of tightening sanctions so Iran ends a uranium-enrichment program that many believe is intended for developing nuclear weapons. Arab officials do fear a U.S. war with Iran and welcome diplomacy that cools off tensions. Yet, many also worry that Obama's conciliatory moves could enable Iran to become a dominant power from the Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea. They fear that the seasoned ayatullahs from Iran are cleverer than an inexperienced senator from Illinois.

Either Obama or McCain will take office in January at a time of high uncertainty in the region, with new elections due in Israel and Iran, internal rivalries still roiling Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories and al-Qaeda far from defeated seven years after 9/11. Between them, Obama stands to carry the Middle East's highest hopes into the White House. Having raised higher expectations, though, Obama also runs the greater risk of being a disappointing failure.

--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo