Condi's Quickie in Beirut

Condoleeza Rice's visit to Lebanon yesterday came out the blue. She swept in unannounced on a helicopter from Cyprus on a trip so furtive that American security officials wouldn't allow Lebanese television stations to shoot video of her convoy moving from the American Embassy through Beiut. And within just a few hours after meeting with Lebanon's new president, she was gone.

The American Secretary of State had good reason to be worried about her safety. She became the woman whom Hizballah most loves to hate during the 2006 war with Israel, when she ignored international appeals for an immediate cease-fire and called the the conflict -- which cost the lives of hundreds of Lebanese children -- "the birth pangs of a New Middle East."  But instead of disarming Hizballah, the Israeli bombardment of Lebanon left the militant group more powerful than ever. Just last month, the Hizballah-led opposition emerged victorious from an 18-month political battle with Lebanon's American-backed ruling coalition which now gives the world's most formidable guerilla organization veto power over all Lebanese decisions, and political cover to continue building its military infrastructure.

Which makes it all the more strange that Rice would choose this particular moment to visit Lebanon. She described her trip as a sign of support for Lebanon's presdent -- Michael Sulieman, the former head of the Lebanese military -- chosen just a few weeks ago by the Lebanese parliament after a deadlock left the job empty for over 6 months. But Sulieman was hardly the Bush administration's choice for the job. America's allies in Lebanon had wanted to elect one of their own as president, but the Hizballah-led opposition effectively shut parliament, and even launched a small-scale civil war, after which the government caved. Though ostensibly a compromise candidate -- the Lebanese army is considered the country's only neutral institution -- the former general is likely as president to block any moves against Hizballah's existence as an armed state within a state.

So why is Rice courting Sulieman? Perhaps it is a recognition of the obvious: that America no longer has any credible partners in Lebanon. The US pushed for the re-appoitment of its ally Fouad Siniora as prime minister in the new government to be formed under Sulieman. (The next parliamentary elections aren't until next spring, so US allies still have a ruling majority.) But Siniora now has little following even within his own coalition.

If that's the case, Rice's visit marks an important change in American policy towards the region. Lebanon has become a battlefield in the Middle Eastern cold war between America and its allies in Israel and the Arab world on the one hand and Iran, Syria, and the militant organizations Hizballah and Hamas on the other. The Bush administration had once tired to completely isolate its enemies -- refusing to engage any of them and hinting at military options. But ever since Hizballa's victory in Beirut, there has been a shift in mood throughout the region. Syria and Israel announced they have been holding indirect peace talks. France invited Syrian President Bashar al Assad to Bastille Day in Paris. Hizballah and Israel appear to be on the verge of a prisoner exchange. In this context, Rice's meeting with Sulieman could be an overture in the direction of Damascus, and a sign that the hardliners in Washington are falling further from favor.

In the very brief question and answer session with the press after her meeting with Sulieman, a reporter asked Rice if she viewed the Doha agreement -- the arrangement between Lebanon's feuding parties which Qatar brokered last month and which resulted in political victory for Hizballah and Sulieman's election -- as a defeat for US interests. "Compromises involve compromise, " Rice replied. Not a view one normally hears from the Bush administration.

--Andrew Lee Butters/Beirut