What's Going to Happen to Lebanon? One Scenario

The Hizballah-led opposition removed its rubble barricades this evening / Photo by ALB

Last night the Lebanese government rescinded the two decisions that sparked last week's violent outburst from Hizallah -- to shut down Hizballah's private military telecommunications network and the firing of the pro-opposition airport chief who had probably been facilitating Hizballah wepaons shipments. In return, the Hizballah-led Shia Muslim opposition groups released their stranglehold on the city, bringing down its road blocks and allowing the airport to re-open. Everyone's back at work, flights are resuming, and no doubt tonight the bars will be packed.

Lebanon could go on humming like this for weeks, even months. Lebanon could have its first normal summer tourist season in years. But unless there is some kind of broad regional settlement that includes talks between American and Iran, and peace between Israel and the Arabs, the calm won't last. Hizballah's lightening quick armed incursion into Beirut was an illuminating moment, and a vision of worse to come.

For one thing, it showed that the Iranian-backed group -- despite years of saying that it would only use its weapons against Israel -- will do anything in its power to protect its military infrastructure, including using it on fellow Lebanese.

It showed that the American-backed ruling coalition is a government in name only. The army won't protect it (or risk splitting apart) the police can't (or they would be destroyed) and the street gangs in Sunni neighborhoods proved no match for Hizballah's ruthless efficiency and superior firepower. If Hizballah wanted to, it could drag Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's cabinet out of the Grand Serail by force.

But the fact that Hizballah didn't do so, and that it only attacked street gangs and political offices (not state institutions) was also illuminating. For all its military supremacy, Hizballah needs a political settlement in order to legitimize its role as a state-within-a-state. Hizballah can't run Lebanon on its own. With 17 different religious groups and a constitution that divides power among them, this place is a mess. Fighting Israel is a whole lot easier than governing Lebanon.

The ruling coalition knows this and is refusing to accept Hizballah's political terms: a new government in which Hizballah would have an expanded role and veto power over major decisions. The Siniora cabinet's only option is to delay, and cling to the symbols of international legitimacy even though it has little street credibility.

This is a dangerous game. With a vacuum at the top, the streets are reasserting themselves. Already the country is dividing up neighborhood by neighborhood, town by town, and gangs are forming to protect their turf and screen outsiders. Unable to contest Hizballah directly, Sunni gangs could start taking revenge on Shia civilians, and begin the cycle of violence and revenge. Already Al Qaeda types are clamoring to come here and kill Shia -- doing to Lebanon what they did to Iraq. And if the government refuses to cooperate, Hizballah may send its troops out again.

At this point the real darkness could begin. Lebanon itself could break up with a rump Hizballahstan taking over in southern Lebanon, southern Beirut, and the Bekaa valley, with an independent Christian Mount Lebanon in the north, and the Sunni city of Tripoli becoming the capital of Al Qaeda. After which, it would be only a matter of time before Lebanon's rival Christian parties start fighting amongst themselves.

This could be just what Israeli and American Likudniks and neo-conservatives want: the Lebanese fighting amongst themselves, and Muslims killing Muslims instead of Jews. But it would be a nightmare for everyone else, worse than any foreign occupation, or despotic government. It would be Fitna -- upheaval, strife, civil war.

Scene of a sectarian street massacre in Beirut last week/Photo by Pasqual Gorriz

--Andrew Lee Butters/Beirut