Cheney in Arabia: Victory Lap, or Salvage Operation?

Dick Cheney arrived in the Middle East today, starting with an unannounced stop in Baghdad. With 10 months left in office, what is one of the chief architects of recent U.S. Middle East policy up to now? Is this the VP's idea of a victory lap, quaintly commencing in Iraq on the fifth anniversary of the invasion? Or something more substantive? A senior U.S. official briefing reporters said: "It's going to be a really interesting trip." When people in the Middle East hear lines like that out of Cheney's office, they tend to start reviewing their evacuation contingencies.

Cheney stood on the deck of a U.S. warship on a 2002 trip to the Middle East and threatened Saddam Hussein with the war the U.S. did launch a year later, in 2003. Last May, Cheney was back, standing on the deck of the same warship, threatening Iran:

"With two carrier strike groups in the Gulf, we're sending clear messages to friends and adversaries alike. We'll stand with our friends in opposing extremism and strategic threats. And we'll stand with others to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons and dominating this region."

But it's looking less likely that Cheney's military option will see the light of day before the Bush administration leaves office next January. I don't see Admiral Fallon's sudden departure/removal as commander of U.S. forces in the Gulf as a sign of an impending attack on Iran, as many are now speculating. I agree with Defense Secretary Gates, who called the link "ridiculous." Bush's own anti-Iran swing through the Arab world two months ago didn't leave many leaders impressed. Inside his own administration, the diplomacy option seems to be the strong focus. Last month, outgoing U.S. diplomat Nicholas Burns, the State Department's point man on Iran, suggested he did not see an attack coming:

"I don't think conflict with Iran is inevitable. There is plenty of space for diplomacy. I think the issue plays out well beyond 2009."

Cheney's announced 9-day itinerary includes "Oman, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank and Turkey." Cheney's unnamed official as much said that the trip to Oman is to big pat on the back of Sultan Qaboos for being such a faithful, headline-shunning ally.

What the Cheney briefer told journalists about the rest of the trip makes it look like less a victory lap than a salvage operation--that is, to salvage the wreckage of the Bush administration's decision to change the region at the barrel of a gun instead of through diplomacy. No wonder Cheney's heart doesn't seem to be quite in it.

Judging from the anonymous briefer's comments, Cheney will talk to King Abdullah bin Abdulzaziz al-Saud about Iraq and oil--presumably asking for the Saudi's help in increasing U.S. success in Iraq and decreasing the price of petroleum. Well, the Saudis warned Cheney and his boss against invading Iraq precisely to avoid the mess the country and the world are in right now. Political fragmentation and civil war in Iraq. Fueling Islamic extremism and terrorism everywhere. Destabilizing the entire region.

It's also worth remembering another cost of Bush-Cheney's approach is the runaway oil price. Before the 2003 invasion the price fluctuated between $20-30 a barrel for quite a while. On Friday before Cheney left Washington, it hit another all-time high of $111 a barrel. This is not to say that the U.S. is responsible for all the tensions/problems in the Middle East, far from it. Yet, there's no doubt that the U.S. invasions and continued saber-rattling, and Washington's encouragement of Israel's military operations and unilateral actions, have stirred up the pot very, very considerably--and oil prices have skyrocketed as a result of all the uncertainty in the world's most important oil-producing region.

Then Cheney will move on to talks with Israeli and Palestinian leaders. Cheney has exhibited scant interest in the Annapolis peace process belatedly initiated by Condi Rice in the twilight years of the Bush presidency. Cheney's briefer suggests that no special extra pressure will be forthcoming from the VP on Israel--the party that maintains the overwhelming military advantage and which occupies the land Palestinians seek for an independent state-- to abide by its confidence-building commitments under the Road Map, such as freezing Jewish settlements in the Palestinian territory. "At the end of the day, they're the ones [i.e, not Bush or Cheney] who are going to have to have the will to get this done," the briefer said.

From there it's on to Turkey, which has angered some inside the Bush administration for invading northern Iraq in search of PKK guerrillas. Funny, the Turkish government warned the Bush administration not to invade Iraq precisely because it feared that the Kurdish region of northern Iraq would become a safe haven for PKK fighters staging terrorist attacks on Turkish territory.

The briefer made it clear that everywhere Cheney went he would want to discuss with Middle East leaders the threat posed by Iran. It's funny how the Bush administration's game of pick-up-sticks in Iraq did leave the Iranian regime in such a better strategic position in the region--including in Iraq itself. A few weeks ago, somebody did run a victory lap during a colorful and historic state visit to Iraq. Oh yeah, that was Ahmadinejad, the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

-By Scott MacLeod/Cairo