Waiting For Hizballah's Revenge

As more is becoming known about the secret world of Imad Mughniyah following his assassination in Damascus this week, more fingers are attributing his killing to Israel. (Also, see Tim McGirk's post preceding this one.)

Although Israel denies carrying out the assassinaton, ex-CIA official Bruce Riedel, one of the U.S. government's most senior counter-terrorism experts in several presidential administrations, reportedly is saying that Mughniyah's killing "proves Israel has infiltrated Hizballah."

Riedel says, according to the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth: "Israeli intelligence services have motive and they have proven their ability to strike in Damascus in the past. This is a significant operation, whether or not the Israelis want to publicly admit to it. He (Mughniyeh) has topped the US and Israel's most-wanted list for a quarter of a century."

Riedel, whose comments are being cited on Hizballah's own website, says the killing of Mughniyah suggests that Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah could be vulnerable to assassination via the same informant who pinpointed Mughniyah's location in Syria.

"It definitely includes Hassan Nasrallah. The Mossad is looking for Nasrallah and he knows it, that's why he conducts his operations from underground. He's wondering who tipped off Mugniyah's location. That same individual could also reveal his own whereabouts."

Riedel downplayed the possibility that U.S. spies killed Mughniyah, even though he had been hunted by American intelligence for years and was believed responsible for the killing of the CIA's Station Chief in Beirut, William Buckley. Riedel says car-bombing is more consistent with the Mossad's modus operandi and that U.S. intelligence has become "busy with many other issues"--an apparent reference to the quest for Bin Laden. On the other hand, "ever since the summer of 2006 Hizbullah has returned to the forefront of Israel's concerns," Riedel says. "Mugniyah also acted as a go-between with Iranian intelligence and Hamas."

For its part, Hizballah as well as Iran appear absolutely convinced that Israel carried out the killing. It's reasonable to assume that Hizballah will eventually take revenge for Mughniyah's death. Indeed, Israel is reported to have already put its embassies and other foreign interests on alert and reinforced its troops along the Lebanese border. In his eulogy Thursday, Nasrallah warned that Hizballah could strike back anywhere in the world because Israel had strayed beyond the "traditional battlefield" by killing Mughniyeh in the Syrian capital.

Hizballah retaliation may have followed Israel's assassination of former Hizballah leader Abbas al-Musawi in Lebanon on Feb. 16, 1992. Almost precisely one month later, on March 17, 1992, the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires was bombed in an attack for which Argentine authorities indicted Mughniyah. Two years after that, another major bombing leveled a Jewish organization, the Argentine Jewish Mutual Association; Mughniyeh as well as senior Iranian officials were indicted for that attack as well. Argentine prosecutors believe that those bombings may have been Tehran's retaliation for an Argentine decision to halt aid to Iran's nuclear program. A total of 114 people died in the attacks.

Mughniyah's killing and his funeral in Beirut Thursday peeled back some of the secrecy surrounding the man who had been America's No. 1 most-wanted terrorist before Osama bin Laden emerged on the scene. In his 284-page history of the group, Hizballah: The Story From Within, Hizballah deputy leader Naim Qassem made no reference to him. The photo of Mughniyah in a military uniform that appeared on Hizballah's al-Manar television channel and on its website was the first new image that the world and even many Hizballah activists had seen of Mughniyah in decades.

His importance in the Hizballah hierarchy was evident in what amounted to the state funeral he was accorded. The Hizballah statement revealing his death said, "With pride and honor, we announce the martyrdom of a great resistance leader who joined the procession of Islamic Resistance martyrs...after a life full of Jihad, sacrifices and accomplishments lived with a longing to martyrdom..."

At the funeral, Nasrallah avoided mention of Mughniyah's alleged involvement in major terrorist attacks but described him as an important military commander who had played a decisive role during Hizballah's fight against Israel's most recent invasion of Lebanon in 2006. Nasrallah went so far as to equate Mughniyah with two other Hizballah leaders whose "martyrdom" had given the group decisive momentum to drive Israeli forces out of Lebanon. Mughniyah's death, he predicted, will now help drive Israel "out of existence." Hizballah revealed that Mughniyah's two brothers, Jihad and Fouad, had previously died in the conflict with Israel.

Mughniyah's close relationship with Iran also became more apparent after his death. Immediate condolences were publicly offered by senior officials, starting with Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei, who called him a "prominent fighter...an example for the young generation to follow." Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki attended Mughniyah's funeral, sitting between Naim Qassem and Mughniyah's father, and gave a statement of condolence from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The President called Mughniyeh a "gallant and lofty cypress...a mighty and righteous son of the Muslim and Arab Ummah, a brave soldier in the fight for independence for Lebanon, the defender of the honor of all nations in the region...a mighty hero."

The fact that Mughniyah was killed in Damascus strongly suggests he also maintained a close working relationship with President Bashar al-Assad's regime. The assassination is deeply embarrassing for Syria, revealing not only Mughniyah's presence in the country but its inability to provide adequate protection for him against what may have been an Israeli intelligence operation.

--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo