Another Pointless Demonstration in Lebanon

Rain on the parade in Beirut/ Andrew Lee Butters

The organizers of today's demonstration to mark the third annivesary of the assination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri had been hoping for a huge turnout, perhaps in the hundreds of thousands, to keep pressure on Syria, which they blame for Hariri's and and a string of other assassinations. Instead, what they got was a relative washout: tens of thousands of damp demonstrators, who left quickly once it began raining in earnest.

Though the weather was partly to blame, as was the general feeling of insecurity caused by a series of riots and attacks that have occurred in recent weeks, today's diminished turnout wasn't that much of a surprise. In the heady days of the so-called Cedar Revolution, demonstrations following the Hariri assassination, helped force the end of Syria's occupation of Lebanon. But since then, a regular procession of mass demonstrations in central Beirut -- by both opponents of Syrian influence in Lebanon, and by Syria's Lebanese allies -- have had less and less impact on the country's political events.

Both the American-backed anti-Syrian coalition which is now running the Lebanese government, and the Syrian-backed opposition led by Hizballah (the Shia Muslim political party) have been playing a numbers game, claiming that their respective demonstrations represent true public opinion. The March 14th coalition -- named for the date of the big rally that ended up pushing Syria out -- stage their demos on the anniversary of Hariri's assassination and sometimes after other assassinations as well. The Hizballah opposition began a campaign of demonstrations last winter, which settled into a ongoing siege that has turned downtown Beirut into a grimy protest campground.

All these demonstrations have ultimately been futile. Not only is there's no proven method for authoritatively estimating crowd size, but even if there was, the two sides are so firmly entrenched in their positions, it's doubtful their either would bow under numerical pressure. That's because neither side of Lebanon's political divide really cares about preserving Lebanese democracy.

The ruling March 14th coalition Lebanese government is clinging onto power -- with American encouragement -- despite the fact that there are no longer any Shia members in the cabinet. (They all resigned.) In doing so, the government, which has a slim majority in parliament, is violating the traditions of the Lebanese constitution (if not the law itself) whereby the country is governed by the consensus and the participation of all its major religious groups. Democracy may be a wonderful thing in the United States, but for better or worse, Lebanon isn't a pure democracy. It's a consensual democracy, and its traditions are there to try and prevent the kind of sectarian problems that lead to civil war.

On the other hand, the Hizballah-led opposition demands a greater role in the democratic process than has traditionally been given to Shia, including enough seats in the cabinet to have a veto power over all decisions. Which could be fair enough, given that the Shia are the fastest growing part of Lebanon's population. But Hizballah also maintains its own militia with weapons from Syria and Iran, and acts as a kind of state-within-a-state, making decisions of war and peace all on its own. Hizballah didn't ask for consensus before it launched a special forces operation to capture Israeli soldiers in 2006, an act which sparked a devastating war.

The reality is that Lebanon is run by politicians that only really reach out to the people when they need warm bodies to fill central Beirut. But by repeatedly calling people to the street, Lebanon's politicians risk giving the street a life of its own. Each of these rallies heightens tensions that could spiral into sectarian violence. Today's anti-climactic wet demonstration was hopefully a sign that Lebanese are catching on. Too bad warmer weather is on its way.

--Andrew Lee Butters/Beirut