Street Skirmishes in Beirut

Seven people died yesterday in the southern suburbs of Beirut after a demonstration over electricity shortages turned into a clash between Shia muslim opposition supporters and the Lebanese army. It's not clear who started the shooting. One rumor is that the Army started firing in the air when protestors refused to leave, and then outside agitators began firing on the protestors. (At least one grenade was also thrown into the mele.)

But what's disturbing about the confrontation isn't just its potential to spark a cycle of revenge or provide an opportunity for those who'd like to see things spiral out of control. What's disturbing is that these relatively minor demonstrations appear to be part of a pattern. For the past month, there have been regular protests over bread shortages, electricity shortages, and other relatively small things by people taking over streets and cutting off roads. While it's possible that these could be spontaneous outbursts of popular anger against the government, it's hard not to see them in the context of the opposition's promise to restart its campaign of mass protests.

Seen in that light, these small demonstrations could be dry runs, exercises to test the will of the government and the reactions of the security services. It's especially worrying that the Army -- seen by most Lebanese as one of the country's few neutral institutions -- has been forced to confront these demonstrations. If these clashes continue, will the army rank-and-file -- many of whom are Shia Muslims -- refuse to deploy against their own countrymen? Is that part of the opposition's plan, to demoralize the Army, so that when the opposition takes the streets again in force -- shutting down roads and perhaps taking over government buildings -- the Army does nothing to stop them? If that happens, expect pro-government parties to take matters into their own hands, and real street fights to follow.

In the short term, watch out for demonstrations on Shia mourning days, the 3rd, 7th and 40th days from when victims were killed. When the big demonstrations start, there will be plenty of warning.

--Andrew Lee Butters/Damascus