Learning from Arlen Spector

Just a few days before the New Year, Arlen Spector, the Republican Senator from Pennsylvania, made an official visit to Syria along with Congressman Patrick Kennedy, a Democrat from of Rhode Island, and after speaking with President Bashar al Assad, they declared that Syria is interested in peace with Israel, and that President Assad would be releasing several imprisoned Syrian political activists.

The visit -- which was made against the Bush Admisitrations wishes -- seemed like a successful example of what can happen by engaing so-called rogue regimes, until the Syria offical news agency ran a story denying that political prisoners would be released and stating that no foreign officials have the right to lecture Syria about its domestic affairs.

The episode is instructive. The Assad family plays hardball. A few photo opportunities and hearty handhsakes and the desert doesn't suddenly bloom. James Baker must have made dozens of visits to Damascus in the 1990's to meet with Bashar Assad's father, the late president Hafez, before peace talks with Israel collapsed in 2000. No one should think that dealing with the Syria this time is going to be any easier.

Syria critics say that visits to Damascus by top American and European officials actually help legitimize a regime which supports anti-Israeli militants in Palestine and Lebanon, and anti-American ones in Iraq, and that Syrian news agencies often distort the statements made by these visiting foreign officials in order to make it appear that they support Syrian policies.

Moreover, the Spector visit is part of a pattern. It often seems as if Syria imprisons human rights and civil society activists soon after Western delegations come to visit. And in fact, the rumor from Damascus is that another crackdown is on the way. Why would they do this, when it embarrasses the very people who would seem most willing to be negotiating partners with Syria?

Whether negotiations with Syria -- even ones limited to regional peace issues -- are worth pursing is itself a matter of question. The Spector incident gives ammunition to Syria critics who say that the Assad regime wants to participate only in the symbolism of the peace process in order to work its way out of international isolation, but without delivering on the substance of peace. There are others who think that some kind Machiavellian bargain with Syria is still possible -- peace with Israel and help in Iraq in return for concessions to Syrian interests in Lebanon, which Syria occupied until forced out in 2005.

The Assad regime doesn't explain itself, and interpreting it is a little like reading tea leaves. But it is now clear that Syria will let no outsiders threaten the stability of the regime. There will be no reform from abroad, and nothing that smells anything like regime change. Peace deals may still be possible, but anyone who wants to deal with Syria, has to deal directly with the Assads and forget about democracy and human rights. That's the lesson that the Senator from Pennsylvania learned in Damascus.

--Andrew Lee Butters/Beirut