The Debate Inside Iran

Rummaging through files for a story on Iran today, I came across some important remarks a month ago by Hasan Rowhani, a leading Iranian politician and former chief nuclear negotiator, that shed some light on the growing U.S.-Iran confrontation.

Find the main remarks below, but basically Rowhani voices strong concern about Ahmadinejad's defiant approach to the international community, and the damage that this is causing to Iran's standing in the world and potentially to its economy through the U.N. Security Council sanctions.

Rowhani's comments are important because of who he is. As the head of the Supreme National Security Council and chief nuclear negotiator under Khatami, he was a key figure in Iran's decision to suspend uranium enrichment for three years. He remains the Supreme Leader's personal representative on the SNSC, which has just been taken over by an Ahmadinejad loyalist. And he is a close political ally of former President Hashemi-Rafsanjani, who continues to be one of the most powerful figures in Iran's regime.

Bush administration officials pondering a military strike on Iran's nuclear program must therefore consider what Rowhani's comments mean. First, despite all of Bush's broad-brush talk about Iranian "evil," in fact there is a spectrum of views and personalities in the Iranian regime, some radical, some moderate. Second, Iran as a whole cares a great deal about its standing in the world, indicating that there is an opportunity for diplomacy with Tehran. Third, Iran is not as oblivious to international pressure as Ahmadinejad's rhetoric makes it seem; Condi Rice's sanctions alternative to Cheney's military option stands a chance of bearing fruit, if not in the final two years of Ahmadinejad's presidential term, then afterwards.

Here's Rowhani, speaking to the Moderation and Progress Party leadership, as reported by the Tehran daily newspaper Aftab-e Yazd on Oct. 12:

“Right now we are facing unprecedented threats in the international arena. A country's diplomacy is successful when it will not allow the enemy to bring other countries to its side against our country's national interests. An Iranian proverb says a single enemy is too many and a thousand friends are not enough. If all the countries of the world were with us it would not be enough, while a single country against us is too many. We must not do anything to increase our enemies."

"If some people do not sense the enemy and the hostility, or if some think they have no enemies or the enemy is weak, this will only help the enemy exert pressures. Being ignorant of one's enemies goes against reason and good sense. America's rulers are truly mischievous people, and their aggression in the region has clearly shown this. Unfortunately our enemies are on the increase. Yesterday it was just Britain with America, but today France is standing with the United States with even greater passion."

“The enemy has prepared itself and is plotting against us every day. It has made the United Nations and Security Council its refuge and uses them to increase its pressure on us. The effects of these pressures are evident in economic and political relations. Our conditions are becoming more difficult by the day. Some might say it is not important, but its economic effects are clearly palpable in people's lives. There is no need for the Central Bank to announce the inflation rate. The people know the real rate of inflation better than the Central Bank. The Central Bank calculates with its own particular formula, but people feel it in their very existence."

--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo