Greater Middle East Meltdown?

Across this huge Muslim-dominated region, things aren't looking good, these days, especially from the perspective of the Bush administration's anti-terror, pro-democracy policies. Some of the trouble spots:

Pakistan: Gen. Pervez Musharraf, a key Bush ally in the "War on Terrorism," is embattled as never before. Judges, human rights activists and political opponents are protesting Musharraf's imposition of de facto martial law and suspension of the constitution amid court challenges to his re-election last month. His regime responded with a crackdown that includes a blackout of independent TV channels and a hint that parliamentary elections may be postponed. Despite violent clashes between her supporters and police, opposition leader Benazir Bhutto is calling for a mass demonstration Friday. This is all bad news for Bush, who relied on Musharraf, who has a finger on Pakistan's nuclear button, to help hunt down Osama bin Laden, and usher in a return to democracy in Pakistan. Displaying her palpable displeasure with the general, Condi Rice said in a terse comment on the crisis: "President Musharraf has said that he would take off his uniform. He should take off his uniform."

Turkey-Iraq: Some 100,000 Turkish soldiers are poised to invade northern Iraq in pursuit of PKK Kurdish fighters who have launched attacks on Turkish military and civilian targets. The U.S. has warned this could highly de-stabilize Iraq, where 150,000 U.S. troops are supporting Bush's nation-building, democratization project. Though Turkey is a close U.S. ally and member of NATO, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's democratically elected prime minister, seemed impatient even after meeting Bush at the White House on Monday. "Turkey expects from the United States and the central Iraqi government concrete and urgent steps which will put a final end to P.K.K. terrorism emanating from northern Iraq," he said.

Egypt: Although the economy is growing and terrorist groups have been largely defeated, the Arab world's most populous country is entering difficult times. The gap between rich and poor is growing, reflected in the increasing number of worker strikes. Condi Rice launched Bush's pro-democracy vision in a Cairo speech three years ago, but now democracy hopes are being dashed by the day, with the arrests of Muslim Brotherhood leaders and secular newspaper editors alike. Amid the growing dissatisfaction, the ruling National Democratic Party's annual conference appeared to move another step toward putting President Hosni Mubarak's son Gamal in a position to win election as his eventual successor.

Israel-Palestine: The one bright spot, surprisingly enough, may be the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. As Tim McGirk writes on time.com, Olmert and Abbas seem to be talking the talk, although as Tim hastens to add, it remains to be seen whether they will walk the walk and launch a meaningful peace process at the Annapolis summit. During Rice's visit to the region this week, both men said they hoped a final peace deal could be negotiated by the time Bush leaves office. Abbas hinted that Olmert was making some positive gestures but would not say what they were. Rice said some things at a dinner in Jerusalem the other night that I felt showed a somewhat more enlightened approach on her part--perhaps an insight into her cajoling tactics with Israeli leaders. For example, she broke some kind of a State Department taboo when she actually suggested that Israel's occupation --rather than, say, Wahhabi brainwashing--was behind Palestinian extremism. She proved to be a Condi-come-lately on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but what she said is worth quoting at length, because it gives a clue to the kind of further turmoil we may see if her efforts fail.

Because of the threat of violent extremism, the two-state solution is, frankly, more urgent now than ever. Responsible Palestinian leaders are genuinely committed to fighting terrorism and building a democratic state, but they are overcoming a crippling legacy of misrule. These are tall orders and the Palestinians need partners. They need a realistic prospect of statehood and we need to help Palestinian reformers show that they can deliver on this hope; for as we read in Proverbs, "Where there is no vision, the people perish."

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is my fear, that if we do not act now to show the Palestinians a way forward, others will show them a way forward. If the Palestinians are losing hope, especially among the young, we have a great danger before us. The prolonged experience of depravation and humiliation can radicalize even normal people. We've all heard the stories and we've read the reports.

But what is different now and far more dangerous is the context. There are other stories, after all, being told and being written out there today: the stories of violent extremists, of Iranian-backed radicals, and of al-Qaida. the prey for these violent extremists is the Palestinian youth, those who have known little else than intifada, occupation, and daily lives of trial. My fear is that if Palestinian reformers cannot deliver on the hope of an independent state, then the moderate center could collapse forever and the next generation of Palestinians could become lost souls of unbridled extremism.

--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo