Beirut Update

While I was away in Kurdistan, nothing much happened in the ongoing Lebanese political crisis. Which is a problem. Like nature, the Middle East abhors a vacuum, and usually fills it with weapons.

The local press is running stories about how political parties loyal to the US backed-Lebanese government and those in the Syrian-backed opposition are both arming themselves in case the presidential election season ends in tears and without consensus for a new head of state.

Constitutionally, Lebanon should have no problem choosing a new president. When the current president's end-of-term approaches later this month, parliament automatically opens for a special election session and the more numerous pro-government MP's can elect their candidate by a simple majority.

The problem is that by tradition, things in this delicate country are often done by consensus. And unfortunately, there are some major issues -- such as the status as of Hizballah as an armed state-within-a-state -- that are keeping the two sides from finding a candidate with a mutually acceptable platform. The fear is that if the government elects a president over Hizballah's objections, the opposition will take their toys to a new sandbox, and set up their own shadow government.

As if that's not bad enough, both Israel, and Hizballah have staged large-scale training maneuvers along their shared border, according to Hizballah and the local press is to be believed. Such displays of muscle are the norm in Israel, but Hizballah's newfound showiness is possibly a new deterrent strategy. The fact that Hizballah in the past kept its considerable military capacity secret may have been one reason why the headstrong Israeli military stumbled blindly into an invasion last summer that ended up being costly and inconclusive for both sides. And though Hizballah leaders say they've rearmed and are more powerful than before, they're clearly concerned that Israel is thinking of coming back to finish the job.

--Andrew Lee Butters/Beirut