The Talk of Qatar

Qatar is a small country with big ambition. It's oil and gas revenues give it one of the highest per capita incomes in the world. Twelve years ago, when Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani became emir, Qatar exported zero quantities of LNG--liquified natural gas. Today, it sells 31 million tons of the fuel, which is mainly used in heating and manufacturing. Earlier today, I met Minister of Energy and Industry Abdulla bin Hamad al-Attiya, who told me this figure will grow to 77 million tons by 2010. (Starting Monday, he's hosting the 6th Doha Conference on Natural Gas.) This evening, visiting a traditional Qatari majlis, and drinking endless cups of cardaman-flavored Arabic coffee, I ran into Hassan Ali Bin Ali, who has served as chairman of Qatar's Center for Children with Special Needs. Now, he's spearheading Qatar's bid to host the Summer Olympics in 2016, in an effort to bring the Games to the Middle East for the first time. If you doubt that Qatar has a chance, don't forget that Doha hosted the Asian Games less than a year ago.

It's hard to distract Qataris from the rapid development taking place here, but the upsurge in rhetoric out of Washington and Tehran is starting to concern people. At the majlis, I heard an analysis from a Qatari scholar that I wish I had included in my recent blog item discussing Bush's top ten reasons for bombing Iran. His view is that Iraq has become a lost cause for the U.S., so Bush will bomb Iran's nuclear installations as a way of limiting Iran's ability to exert greater regional hegemony in the wake of the American defeat and retreat.

The Gulf countries are literally on the front line, if a military confrontation ensues. That explains the foreboding of Gulf leaders as well as the risks of a U.S. attack. Qatar hosts U.S. military forces at the Al Udaid base outside Doha, so it could be on the receiving end of Iran's ballistic missiles in the event of a retaliatory attack. To say the least, that would strain Qatar's ties with Iran, which may be the best that any Arab country has with Tehran, not least because it shares its LNG field with Iran. Existential concerns are harbored in other Gulf countries like Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, whose large Shiite Muslim populations have previously rebelled against their Sunni rulers. Further instability in the Gulf could lead to a huge drop in the value of companies and real estate in boom towns like Dubai and Doha, affecting the pocketbooks of millions of Arab and international investors. In theory, as al-Attiya told me today, the consolation prize would be another upward spike in oil prices and revenues. But Arab producers may miss out on that, if shipping is affected by another shoot-'em-up in the Gulf.

--By Scott MacLeod/Doha