Plot to Kill the Israeli Premier

The Middle East seethes with conspiracy theories. They're always intriguing, a bit racy. And sometimes, they may even be true. Let's look at some of the rumors (yes, in blogs, we can rumor-ize) that are swirling around the plot to kill Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. It's a very old plot, so the question is: why is it only surfacing now?

Just as Olmert left Israeli for a trip to Europe on Sunday, the chief of Shin Bet revealed that four months ago, the Israelis uncovered a Palestinian plan to assassinate the prime minister.

Wait a minute... Four months ago?

So, this is where the conspiracy theories kick in. Many in Olmert's cabinet don't want their P.M. to be strong-armed by Condi (after all, she works out every morning) into making concessions to the Palestinians that might be a boon to terrorists, or that lead to a dismantling of the Jewish settlements in the West Bank. At the same time, the Israelis don't want to take the rap if the summit flops.

If the Israelis can show that Abbas is a weakling, and the democratic impulse among Palestinians isn't as strong as their thirst for revenge, then Bush wouldn't blame them for refusing to go to the peace summit. It's an easy out.

Enter the chief of Shin Bet, Israel's version of the FBI. He told a cabinet meeting on Sunday that the would-be assassins belonged to Fatah, the militia of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, and as such they would have been privy to the security precautions taken by Olmert's motorcade as it roared down from Jerusalem to Jericho for his meeting with Abbas. Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin also claimed that the Palestinian authorities, after arresting the suspects, then set them free. As Public Security Minister Avi Dichter sneered to the Israeli press: “This is a classic example of the Palestinian Authority's policy of make-believe.”

Too bad that a Ha'aretz journalist rushed down to Jericho prison and found that two of those Palestinian suspects mentioned by Shin Bet were still locked up. Their arrest occurred after Fatah officers were overheard saying on telephones taped by Israeli intelligence that they would like to attack Olmert's motorcade, but the plot doesn't seem to have gone much beyond this angry talk. Olmert's meeting in Jericho with Abbas was postponed for other reasons, so the Israeli leader was never in direct danger.

Israeli politicians pounced on news of the plot as proof that the Abbas and the other Palestinians were all unrepentant terrorists, and Olmert should cancel his attendance at the Annapolis summit. And that, say the conspiracy theorists, is exactly what the hardliners wanted.

By Tim McGirk/Jerusalem