Iran's Crisis Deepens As Larijani Resigns

Major news--perhaps bad news-- out of Tehran today:

Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council, and Iran's chief negotiator with international bodies over Iran's controversial nuclear program, is reported to have abruptly resigned his post.

Little information has surfaced thus far about Larijani's reasons, but it can be assumed that the abrupt resignation by such a key figure suggests a serious crisis within the Iranian regime concerning how to handle the international dispute over Iran's nuclear program. The Bush administration has warned Iran that it faces possible military action if it does not voluntarily abandon its uranium enrichment program.

It appears to be a significant domestic political boost at least in the short term for Larijani's rival, President Ahmadinejad. Ahmadinejad's spokesman Ghloam-Hossein Elham announced Larijani's resignation at a weekly press briefing. Elham also said that another close Ahmadinejad ally, Deputy Foreign Minister for European and American Affairs Saeed Jalili, would probably replace Larijani.

On paper and often in practice, Larijani held more sway over Iranian foreign policy than Ahmadinejad. The SNSC formulates foreign and security policy under the authority of Iran's Supreme Leader and the SNSC chief has thus played a more influential role than the president, who is merely one member of the council.

Although a staunch conservative, Larijani is a strong proponent within the Iranian regime for cooperation with the West, and is known to have been upset by anti-Israel rhetoric by Ahmadinejad that seriously damaged Iran's international standing. As the main interlocutor with the West in Iran's efforts to head off further sanctions and win agreement for its nuclear program to continue, Larijani's cause was not aided by Ahmadinejad's recent speech at the U.N. in which he declared the nuclear issue over.

Elham told reporters that Larijani had tried to resign before but the president had refused to accept his resignation. The two were rivals in the 2005 presidential election and have maintained an increasingly stormy relationship ever since. His departure indicates that the Supreme Leader was willing to side with Ahmadinejad in the power struggle. Unless the Larijani-Ahmadinejad friction was purely personal, this would suggest that Iran may be in no mood right now to acquiesce to U.S. pressure and suspend its enrichment efforts even temporarily.

Given Larijani's experience and pragmatic outlook, his absence could deal a serious blow to Iran's efforts to negotiate a successful outcome of its international dispute. He was scheduled to have another meeting on the issue next week with European envoy Javier Solana. He may be quitting in part to prepare himself to make a major challenge to Ahmadinejad in the next presidential balloting due in 2009. But if the nuclear standoff continues, Iran's crisis may have significantly worsened by the time voters go to the polls.

--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo