The Next Saudi King

It's not democracy as we know it, but Saudi Arabia, the strategically vital desert kingdom that sits atop a quarter of the world's oil reserves, has taken some noteworthy steps toward making the modern dynasty founded by Ibn Saud in 1932 somewhat more accountable and transparent.

Ibn Saud and six of his sons

Just before Eid el-Fitr, King Abdullah, 84, issued a royal decree that completes a major reform of the succession process that he initiated last year. It seems clear that Abdullah was determined to fix the problems that he himself encountered while he was Crown Prince during the late King Fahd's 10-year incapacitating illness. Under the new rules, the selection of future kings is on paper at least taken out of the hands of powerful family cliques operating in smoke filled rooms and rather put to a vote in which each of Ibn Saud's male offspring--he had 44 sons-- or their heirs has an equal say. The most significant aspect of the change is that it raises the distinct possibility that a future king will be chosen from the second generation of Al Saud, putting an end to the repeated ascendance to the Saudi throne of geriatric princes who are well into their 70s and even 80s.

Last year, Abdullah issued a succession law that created a body called the Allegiance Commission, made up of the male offspring, or in the case of death or incapacitation, a son of the offspring. In the event of the king's death, the commission will immediately meet to confirm the crown prince as the new king. Instead of automatically selecting his own crown prince, which has generally followed the rules of seniority, the new king can nominate a crown prince who will then have to be confirmed by the commission. If it chooses to do so, the commission can reject the king's choice and appoint a crown prince of its own choosing.

The new rules do not affect Abdullah or the current heir to the throne, Crown Prince Sultan, 83. But if and when Sultan ascends, he could more easily choose an heir apparent from the next generation. If he didn't, the commission would have the authority to reject his nominee. The overall effect is to broaden the decision making and make it more likely that younger princes can move up the succession ladder based on competence rather than seniority.

Interestingly, the new statute provides a mechanism for removing a king who is deemed medically unfit for office. If the commission is concerned about the king's health, it can instruct a medical committee to make a report on his condition and then vote to remove the king from power and replace him with the crown prince. This provision seems to eliminate the chaos that ensued within the royal family after Fahd suffered a serious stroke in late 1995 just as Al Qaeda was beginning to emerge as a formidable challenge. In that instance, Fahd named Abdullah regent, abruptly withdrew the designation and then proceeded to rule in name only for another 10 years. During most of that time, Abdullah was acknowledged as the de facto ruler, but he had to check important decisions with a coterie of princes making up a Fahd faction inside the royal family. Under the new rules, the Allegiance commission in theory would have removed Fahd and replaced him with Abdullah during the early part of his illness.

The first casualty of the new system appears to be Prince Naif, the powerful interior minister and full brother of both Fahd and Sultan. Until Abdullah became king, the custom was for the king to appoint a crown prince, who was also first deputy prime minister, and to appoint a second deputy prime minister who was considered the No. 3 in line. Sultan held that post before becoming Abdullah's crown prince, and many expected Naif, by virtue of influence, experience and seniority, to move into it. But Abdullah conspicuously has left the post vacant in the two years since becoming king.

If the succession does move into the next generation within the next decade, it is anybody's guess who Sultan might eventually nominate to be his crown prince or who the commission itself might prefer. Some of the more obvious possibilities:

--Prince Bandar bin Sultan, Abdullah's national security advisor and former ambassador to Washington; son of current crown prince.

--Prince Saud al Faisal, long-serving foreign minister, son of late King Faisal.

--Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, executive chairman of Kingdom Holding; the most successful member of the royal family in private business; son of famous reformist prince.

--Prince Sultan bin Salman, head of Saudi tourism ministry; former astronaut, first Arab and first Muslim in space during 1985 mission of space shuttle Discovery; son of influential governor of Riyadh.

--Prince Miqrin bin Abdulaziz, head of Saudi intelligence; though he is a son of Ibn Saud, he is one of the youngest, making him a contemporary of most of the grandsons.

--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo