The Israeli Air Strike Mystery

Israel's mysterious Sept. 6 air strike against an unidentified target in the far reaches of north-eastern Syria is continuing to generate a great deal of controversy in the press and in the blogsphere. First, American officials put out the red herring that the strike was related to Syrian arms shipments to Hizballah, highly unlikely given how far away the target site is from Lebanon. Then came speculation that the attack was a dry run to test Syrian defenses in case of an Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear sites, which would have to pass over Syrian airspace. The latest line, put out by anonymous American and Israeli officials in comments to the New York Times and elsewhere, is that the target was a facility related to nuclear development, and that the strike occurred a few days after a ship with nuclear-related material from North Korean docked at a Syrian port.

Critics have cast doubt on the possibility that Syria has either the money or inclination start a long term nuclear program that would vault it from the junior ranks of the Axis of Evil into the big league. Also open to question is whether North Korea or Syria's ally Iran are in any position to support a nuclear program in another country when their own projects are facing enormous scrutiny.

Still, at this stage one thing is certain about the whole incident: it has served as a reminder that the Israeli military still retains ample power to deter aggression. Hizbllah's apparent victory against the Israeli army in Lebanon last summer had emboldened Israel's enemies in the region. Syria has been increasingly demanding that Israel return the occupied Golan Heights in exchange for peace, or else face a similar Hizballah-style guerilla "Resistance." At the same time, the Syrians have been purchasing anti-aircraft technology from Russia. But Syrian air defenses did little to stop Israel from mounting a raid deep into Syrian territory without losing a single plane.

But that doesn't mean that the Middle Eastern balance of power is back on an even keel. Syria has said it will respond to the attack, though it remains to be seen how it will do so. My friend Andrew Tabler, the editor of Syria Today magazine, told me over the phone from Damascus that he thinks the response will be indirect. "The way the region is shaping up these days, if you want to send a message to Israel, the mailbox is in Lebanon," he said.

That could mean a response from Hizballah. Israeli jets flew low over Hizballah territory in southern Lebanon today, causing sonic booms that were perhaps a warning against just such a scenario. But with Israel's patron, the United States, becoming increasingly involved in Lebanon's political crisis -- backing the government aginst the Hizballah-led opposition which is supported by Syria and Iran -- the response could also be against domestic Lebanese targets.

--Andrew Lee Butters/Beirut