Why Bush's Mideast Arms Deals are "Dangerous"

On the U.S.-Iran showdown, Mohammed ElBaradei has some strong comments on the dangers of the Bush administration's approach. As I reported in the blog last month, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency wants Washington to find ways of engaging rather than threatening Iran. In a blunt interview with the Austrian newsmagazine Profil this week, ElBaradei criticizes the new U.S. arms package for Israel and Arab states--totalling at least $43 billion, and that's just for Israel and Egypt, it is a message to Tehran--and warns about any U.S. plans for regime change in Iran. ElBaradei sensibly insists on the need to ensure that Iran does not get the bomb while appreciating the complex domestic political situation in Iran. (Today, by the way, ElBaradei circulated his latest confidential report on Iran, covering developments since May 23, for the upcoming meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors on Sept. 10.)

Excerpts:

Profil: Haven't the western nuclear States forfeited their legitimacy to tell Iran what it is and isn't allowed to do?

ElBaradei: Of course the West has the right to say that Iran has to disclose its nuclear intentions. But a solution to the problem can only be achieved if you don't stop at trying to treat the symptoms. Otherwise there is a risk that the situation in the Middle East will just deteriorate even further. The chaos there is already unbelievable anyway.

Profil: The USA has recently made an about-turn in its Middle East strategy. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel and other friendly States are now receiving huge financial support for their armament efforts. Is this helpful in improving the security situation in the Middle East?

ElBaradei: Investing more money in arming this region is not helping at all. On the contrary: it could lead to a new cold war. This will bring neither stability nor security. This is a very dangerous development.

Profil: And what would an alternative strategy look like?

ElBaradei: The money should be invested in the region's development, in projects which improve the human rights situation, combat poverty and improve the poor education system. The major problem in the Middle East is the lack of good governments. There are still many authoritarian regimes in the Middle East. Security can only be ensured through development in the region. If a population is being oppressed by its own government and has no future prospects, a feeling of despair results and consequently militarism spreads and people become suicide bombers. It is now up to the West to promote the necessary development in the Middle East so that people can finally understand that peaceful coexistence is possible.

Profil: The Iranian Revolutionary Guards, who share responsibility for the nuclear programme in Tehran, have now been put on the list of terrorist organizations by Washington. What do you think about that?

ElBaradei: A crucial choice must be made: If you opt for confrontation to bring about a regime change, then you can forget discussion and should not be surprised when the other side becomes intent on revenge. The other option is to say: Even if I do not like the regime, I still have to talk to its representatives. The alternatives are dialogue or isolation. In such situations I am always in favour of dialogue, in order to find a long-term solution.

Profil: So far, it does not appear that the talks with Tehran have achieved much.

ElBaradei: We need to ensure that Iran discloses its nuclear intentions. There is some progress there. The Iranians are cooperating with us for the first time and drawing up a work plan with us: We are now to learn all about the genesis of their nuclear programme. This is the first step forward in a few years. I now have to wait and see whether this cooperation is meant in earnest. We also want a limitation of their nuclear ambitions, however. This has to go hand in hand with a comprehensive security dialogue between Iran and its neighbours, but also with Israel and the USA. A security dialogue of this type is currently under way in North Korea. The six-party talks are not only about the North Korean nuclear programme, but also about stabilizing the security situation. This is precisely what is lacking in the Middle East. There is a European offer which was made to Iran jointly with the USA and Russia, but unfortunately we have no negotiations yet. The two parties are not negotiating yet.

Profil: From the outside it looks as if President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is leading the United Nations up the garden path.

ElBaradei: Ahmadinejad is not the only player in Iran. There are a number of people who contribute to the decision processes. Iran is a complicated and heterogeneous society. We must support those who want dialogue. They have to be strengthened. The more you isolate a country, the stronger you make the hardliners. The United Nations Security Council put pressure on Iran because it refused to cease uranium enrichment. But in my opinion you have to enter into direct negotiations in parallel to such measures. Just sanctions without negotiations — that won't lead to any solution to the problem.

--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo