Problems, Problems

Iraq, Al Qaeda, Israel-Palestine, Iran: all the big Middle East issues are looming ever larger on Bush's desk as he hit the point of 18 months left in office this week.

--On Iraq, he acknowledged that his domestic support is collapsing but last week vowed to stay his course "to make sure our new strategy succeeds." Despite the complaining in Congress, I think its unlikely there will be a major withdrawal of American forces in the next six months, probably longer. Bush is sending Condi Rice and Robert Gates to the Middle East to "reassure" our allies that the U.S. continues to see the region as a vital strategic interest.

--On Al Qaeda, the same message: the U.S. must "succeed" in Iraq in order to prevent Al Qaeda and Islamic extremism from winning.

--On Israel-Palestine, Bush Monday gave a very promising address supporting a two-state solution, calling for "serious negotiations toward the creation of a Palestinian state." He said Rice would chair a mini international peace conference to "review the progress that has been made toward building Palestinian institutions. They will look for innovative and effective ways to support further reform. And they will provide diplomatic support for the parties in their bilateral discussions and negotiations, so that we can move forward on a successful path to a Palestinian state."

--On Iran, we have the story in today's British Guardian that says Dick Cheney's military option is gaining the upper hand over Rice's diplomatic approach in the internal Bush administration debate over how to deal with Iran's nuclear program. Or at least that's what it looked like at an internal meeting last month, according to the Guardian.

Stay tuned. All of these big issues are connected, in a variety of ways. As a well-placed Western diplomat told me this week, as bad as Iraq has become, we may not have seen the worst. This was NOT hyperbole.

--By Scott MacLeod/Riyadh