Al Qaeda Since 9/11: Stronger or Weaker?

President Bush's press conference Thursday must've been music to Al Qaeda's ears.

Bush acknowledged that Americans have “war fatigue” and that there is domestic political pressure to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq. That “would mean surrendering the future of Iraq to Al Qaeda,” Bush warned. He added that other extremists would be emboldened, and U.S. allies would be confused and frightened, by an American pullout.

That's pretty much Al Qaeda's view of things, too. In a 67-minute video tape released on jihadist websites on May 5, Al Qaeda No. 2 Ayman el-Zawahiri asserted that Americans were tired of Iraq, noted the congressional pressure to withdraw U.S. troops and bragged that Al Qaeda is winning a major victory in Iraq for jihadists everywhere.

Bush:

There is a war fatigue in America. It's affecting our psychology.

El-Zawahiri:

I praise Allah for what has been suffered by the Americans, their Crusader allies and their helpers, the worshippers of thrones, in terms of disasters and defeats over the last four years in Afghanistan and Iraq…

Bush:

There's a lot of people in Congress who don't think we can win, as well, and therefore their attitude is, get out.

El-Zawahiri:

This bill reflects American failure and frustration.

Bush:

To begin withdrawing before our commanders tell us we are ready would be dangerous for Iraq, for the region, and for the United States. It would mean surrendering the future of Iraq to al Qaeda.

El-Zawahiri:

I give the good news to the Muslim Ummah -- and not just it, but all the world's oppressed, the victims of Western Crusader repression -- that the Empire of Evil is about to come to an end, and that a new dawn is about to rise, Allah permitting, over a mankind liberated from the Caesars of the White House, Europe and the Zionists. We are going through a historic period of utmost importance in the history of the Muslim Ummah and, indeed, all of humanity: a period in which many truths have been revealed and a number of masks have fallen away… The critical importance of the Jihad in Iraq and Afghanistan becomes clear, because the defeat of the Crusaders there -- soon, Allah permitting, will lead to the setting up of two Mujahid Emirates which will be launch pads for the liberation of the Islamic lands and the establishment of the Caliphate, with Allah's permission.

Bush:

All these extremist groups would be emboldened by a precipitous American withdrawal, which would confuse and frighten friends and allies in the region.

El-Zawahiri:

The Jihad in Iraq today, by the Grace of Allah, is moving from the stage of defeat of the Crusader invaders and their traitorous underlings to the stage of consolidating a Mujahid Islamic Emirate which will liberate the homelands of Islam, protect the sacred things of the Muslims, implement the rules of the Shari'ah, give the weak and oppressed their rights back, and raise the banner of Jihad as it makes its way through a rugged path of sacrifice and giving towards the environs of Jerusalem, with Allah's permission...Thus, I warn everyone who has helped the Crusade against Iraq and Afghanistan that the Crusaders are departing -- by their own admission -- and soon, with Allah's permission, so let him ponder his fate and future.

Bush and el-Zawahiri may underline an essential truth in suggesting that U.S. war fatigue in Iraq is handing al Qaeda a noteworthy victory. A problem with this, however, is that Bush doesn't want to be blamed if the growing domestic pressure forces a troop withdrawal that enables Al Qaeda to crow. But a big part of the administration's mistake in conceiving the Iraq adventure was its failure to estimate Al Qaeda's emergence there after Saddam's overthrow, and how to win the war decisively before congress became too impatient.

On that point, Bush and el-Zawahiri differ on whether Al Qaeda has become stronger or weaker since 9/11 and the American-led “war on terrorism.” You be the judge.

Bush:

There is a perception in the coverage that al Qaeda may be as strong today as they were prior to September the 11th. That's just simply not the case.

El-Zawahiri: The Al Qaeda leader did not address this question head on, but his video approvingly included a clip from comments made by Arab commentator Abdulbari Atwan, as follows:

We can see that al-Qaida Organization after September 11th is much stronger than it was before September 11th. Before September 11th, it was confined to the Republic of al-Qaida in Tora Bora. Other than that, there was no al-Qaida Organization. It was not present in London, it was not present in Iraq, it was not present--for example--in the West, it was not present--as it might be now or in the future--in Darfur. Al-Qaida is no longer the pyramidal organization it use to be: Shaykh Osama bin Ladin, Dr. Ayman el-Zawahiri, Shaykh Abu Hafs al-Misri, and after him al-Panjsheri and so on. Now the organization has become horizontal: a well-known leadership in hiding, and we have the leadership of al-Qaida in Saudi Arabia, we have the leadership of al-Qaida in Europe, we have the leadership of al-Qaida in Iraq… For the first time in history, there is a truly international organization. The Palestinians were confined to Palestine, the Iraqis were confined to Iraq, the Lebanese--Hizbullah for example--are confined to Lebanon. But now for the first time, there is an Islamic organization with a global cover and global outlook.

--By Scott MacLeod/Dubai