Beware the Ides of July

Last week, Scott blogged about the possibility there might be another war this summer. Well, apparently the date has been now been set: July 15th, or thereabouts. We just don't yet know how it is going to start.

The July 15th theory stems from the fact that two UN reports are due sometime from the 15th to the 17th. One report could recommend sending international troops to Lebanon's eastern border to prevent Syria from smuggling weapons into this country. The other is an update into the UN investigations that have implicated Syria in the string of political assassinations that began in Lebanon in 2005 with the car bomb killing of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

The idea is that Syria is going to do whatever it can to prevent the international noose from tightening around it's neck. Syrian critics in Lebanon say they see their neighbor's hand in an ongoing militant Islamist uprising in the north, and a deadly bomb attack against UN soldiers in the South. What other tricks might the Syrians have up their sleeve that could spark an international incident?

Well, for one thing, the pro-Syrian Lebanese opposition has grown tired of it's six- month standoff with the pro-American Lebanese government, a soft-coup attempt which has left its supporters stuck downtown in a protest tent-city sweltering in the summer sun while the government carries on as normal. If the local press is to be believed, the opposition is going to raise the stakes by starting its own shadow government sometime in mid-July. If that happens Lebanon could start unravelling into regions controlled by the two different sides -- with Hizballlah led-opposition creating a kind of Shia-stan out of southern Lebanon and the Bekka Valley. The process would almost certainly end in tears.

And there's always the possibility -- as crazy as it seems -- of a full scale replay of last summer's war. The macho posturing between Syria, Israel and Hizballah -- all of whom are either re-arming or staging military maneuvers along there respective borders -- could spiral out of control. Already there is talk in Israel that the after the country's dismal performance last summer -- that their antagonistic Arab neighbors need to be put back in their place.

Does all this sound highly speculative to you? The fact that so many Lebanese are worried about the July 15th doomsday scenario underscores the sense of powerlessness that average people feel as they watch their country spinning out of control. Picking a date gives the mess some semblance of order, however arbitrary. But perhaps there is also some comfort in the thought that nothing in Lebanon ever happens on time.

--Andrew Lee Butters/Beirut