Iran's "Petrol Revolution"

If the Bush administration wants to foment a velvet revolution against Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, maybe it should step aside and let Iranian motorists do the job themselves.

Outraged over gasoline rationing and its sudden implementation this week, Iranian protesters set fire to petrol stations--some reports put the number of attacks at 19 so far-- and otherwise grumbled as they endured long lines at the pump in the 95 F heat. The police had to stand by to keep order as the government banned the media from publicizing the unrest. Some protesters shouted "Death to Ahmadinejad" in what amounted to the worst public violence since his election exactly two years ago this week. In a TV interview, Ahmadinejad's deputy petroleum minister, while saying the rationing program was proceeding "perfectly," admitted that he had been stuck in the ensuing traffic chaos himself for an hour and a half.

The White House has always placed far too much emphasis on Ahmadinnejad's radical rhetoric, ignoring the fact that 1) the supreme leader, not the president, is the real ruler in Iran, and 2) Ahmadinejad faces major political challenges even from Iranian hard-liners, and his popular support, though impressive at times, is shaky. Iran's ruling elite has long criticized Ahmadinejad for playing petty politics with other Iranian politicians, interfering in religious matters in Qom, pushing polices that spiked inflation and using militant rhetoric against Israel that has helped unite the West against Iran's nuclear program.

By implementing gasoline rationing this week, Ahmadinejad's government lit a fuse of popular anger that will not be easy to extinguish. His own political future is at stake, given that one of Ahmadinejad's campaign promises was to put Iran's oil wealth on the table of every Iranian. By limiting the amount of petrol motorists can purchase every month, his government instead is cutting into the economic livelihoods and social patterns of millions of Iranians. Even before the rationing began, Iranians were furious over a 25% increase in the price of gasoline.

From an economic point of view, the rationing makes some sense. The government-subsidized pump price in Iran must be the lowest in the world and that has to change. But considering that Iran is a major petroleum producer, the fact that it needs to ration gasoline underscores how the country's political isolation--thanks to radical policies like those promoted by Ahmadinejad--has prevented sustainable development of Iran's exploration and refining industries. As this dawns on more and more Iranians, don't be surprised if Ahmadinejad starts singing a different tune.

--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo