Three Cheers for Tony

Arab diplomats aren't showing much enthusiasm or expectation over the appointment of Tony Blair as envoy of the so-called Quartet on the Middle East--that's a working partnership formed in 2002 of the U.S., Russia, the European Union and the United Nations to get Israelis and Palestinians to make peace. (Read about its mission here.)

Tony is politically toxic in the Arab world--not only for having helped Bush invade Iraq, but also for all his empty promises to help redirect Western focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some Arab dips dub Blair "Tony Bush." I guess that's better than "the poodle." They see the appointment as a political favor, Bush giving the unemployed Tony something to do. Anyway, the "road map" that the Quartet sought to implement obviously hasn't led anywhere. It was supposed to produce a final peace agreement by 2005. At this point, Israeli and Palestinian leaders are just barely on speaking terms.

Yet, Blair's involvement could turn out to be a tremendous boost for the peace process, if not immediately during Bush's final year and a half in office, then in setting the agenda for the next U.S. administration.

Blair has a good record as a mediator, and not only with the Northern Ireland dispute. Blair personally deserves the lion's share of credit for brokering the deal that ended Gadhafi's involvement in terrorism and WMD development and led to Libya's international political rehabilitation. It was Blair's office that first took seriously Gadhafi's feelers and persuaded the Bush administration to get involved in following them up.

In bringing Gadhafi in from the cold, Blair showed a willingness to put realism over idealism, which may be an essential element in banging Israeli and Palestinian heads together and bringing about necessary compromises. Many observers feel that Washington's pro-Israel tilt has become part of the problem in settling the dispute, especially during the Bush administration, whereas British officials have historically brought a more balanced approach to diplomacy.

Blair also seems to have a genuine personal interest in seeing peace achieved in the Middle East, in contrast with Bush, who has been far more focused on fighting terrorism and talking about democracy. That could inject a new dynamic in the peace process; a balanced approach pushed by Blair could in turn strengthen the hand of pro-peace advocates inside the U.S. administration. And Blair will have the ear of Bush himself. “I think Condi is crazy if she thinks Tony is not going to poach on her exclusive management of negotiations,” says a Western diplomat with long experience in the region. “Assuming he is somewhat successful, I think this will raise the pressure on Israel. If nothing else, it gives the process a shot in the arm and is a net plus.”

I'm hearing that Blair's role may in fact be relatively limited: instead of grand peacemaking, he'll just quietly work to restore international aid to the Palestinians and help rebuild Palestinian governing institutions. That would be a regrettably limited use of Blair's skills, but such a high-profile envoy, whatever his assignment, will help to underscore the urgency of resolving this destructive dispute once and for all.

--By Scott MacLeod/Sharm el-Sheikh