Bombings in Lebanon

Besides the fighting in Tripoli between the Lebanese Army and a Sunni militant group -- Fatah Al-Islam -- two bombs have exploded in Beirut in the last two days. One of them, which detonated shortly before midnight on Sunday, was planted in Christian East Beirut not far from my apartment. The other exploded yesterday in Muslin West Beirut. Both neighborhoods where the bombs went off are chi-chi strongholds of the country's business and political ruling classes, which back the Lebanese government.

The most logical explanation so far for the bombs is that they are attempts by Fatah Al Islam to distract and intimidate Lebanese security forces from continuing their assault against the group, which is holed up inside a Palestinian refugee camp. This explains the seemingly hurried nature of the first bomb which targeted a shopping mall with heavy security that probably prevented the attackers from putting the device in a place were it could have harmed more people. (One woman was killed.)

Many in the Lebanese government are blaming Syria for backing Fatah Al Islam. They accuse the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad of sowing chaos as a way to prevent the government and the United Nations Security Council pushing for a tribunal to try suspects in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri. (I've written before about the possibility that the UN tribunal could spark violence.)

But the Syrian government is spinning this the opposite way. The Syrian Ambassador to the UN hinted that anti-Syrian forces in Lebanon might be behind the violence, as a way of galvanizing the Lebanese public, and international opinion against Syria. He noted that in the past there have been attacks at sensitive moments in the UN investigation of Hariri's death (which has implicated Syria) as if designed to embarrass the Syrian government.

This line of argument may have had some traction in the past. I for one have had doubts about Syrian involvement in some of the bombings that have occurred after Hariri's death. (Surely Syrian intelligence isn't totally stupid). But as a draft resolution to establish the Hariri tribunal by force makes the rounds at the UN Security Council, Syria may well be capable of desperate acts.

--Andrew Lee Butters on my way back to Lebanon