Here Comes Trouble

An association of Beirut merchants is staging a quixotic campaign for a 100-day truce in the political crisis that is scaring off business and ruining Lebanon's economy. Business owners are desperate not to have another bad summer like last year, when war nearly destroyed the country's all important tourism economy. Their plan is that from June 1 to September 10, all politicians should refrain from attacking each other in the media and from appearing on talk shows.

No doubt the world would be a better place if all politicians everywhere honored a summer vacation from partisanship. However the chances of this happening in Lebanon anytime soon are pretty slim.

After more than five months of stalemate, the conflict between the US-backed government of Fouad Siniora and the Syrian-backed opposition led by Hizballah is about to enter a new phase. The US, France and Britain are circulating a draft UN Security Council Resolution that would unilaterally establish a tribunal to try suspects in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minster Rafik Hariri. (I've written before about why I think this is a bad idea.) Government supporters accuse Syria of being behind the killing, and US sees the tribunal as useful way of pressuring the regime of Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad.

It's not yet clear that the Security Council will pass the resolution, since member-state Russia has close relations with Syria dating from the Cold War. But last night, I spoke with a UN official who said that all sides on the conflict are now reconciling themselves to the idea that tribunal will soon be a reality.

That doesn't mean however that the opposition is going to pack up its tents and go home, or the Syrian government will just go quietly into the night. On Tuesday, Lebanon's pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud warned that there could be violence if the tribunal is imposed upon Lebanon by force. One suspects that Lahoud -- who appointed many of the former Lebanese security officials accused of helping Syria with the Hariri assassination -- knows what he is talking about.

--Andrew Lee Butters/Jerusalem