Another Detainee in Iran

Some unfortunate news from Tehran:

Haleh Esfandiari, a highly respected Iranian-American academic, is being detained by Iranian authorities. Esfandiari is director of the Middle East program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, in Washington, D.C. Check out the Washpost story by Iran expert Robin Wright, who knows her.

The Iranian government has been upset by the U.S. military's detention of five Iranian officials from the Iranian consulate in Erbil, Iraq, last January. I doubt that has anything to do with Esfandiari's detention, however.

In March, the Iranians seized 15 British sailors and marines accusing them of trespassing in Iranian waters. The main reason for the detention was to send a message to Britain and indirectly to then U.S. that Iran would not stand idly by as the U.N. imposed and enforced sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program. I don't think Esfandiari's detention has anything to do with sanctions, either.

Most likely Esfandiari's detention is related to the intense suspicion of Iranian hard-liners that the Bush administration is plotting the Islamic regime's overthrow in a "Velvet Revolution."

In 2002, Bush labeled the Iranian regime a member of the "axis of evil," despite the fact that moderate President Mohammed Khatami's government had cooperated in the overthrow of the Taliban after 9/11. Bush proceeded to overthrow another "axis" member, Saddam Hussein's regime, by force in 2003.

While claiming to be committed to a "diplomatic solution" to change "the behavior of the Iranian government," the administration is nonetheless in the process of implementing a $66.1 million pro-democracy program for Iran. (See "United States Policy toward Iran," the State Department's March 29 testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.) The Iranian government is obviously not cooperating with this U.S. plan; not surprisingly, its harder-line elements are highly suspicious of anyone in Iran with contacts with Americans who they fear might be secretly organizing the "Velvet Revolution." The Iranian foreign minister told me in Egypt last week that his country was ready for talks with the U.S.; the message here seems to be that if you don't want to talk, then don't try to mess with us, either.

Esfandiari is not the first to fall victim in this U.S.-Iranian Cold War and unfortunately may not be the last. What is ironic is that many of the best experts on Iran, whether they are Iranian or American, strongly oppose the Bush administration's hard-line approach to dealing with mullahs. Unlike the neo-cons who have driven much of Bush's Middle East policies, they well know the complexities of Iran's internal politics as well as the staying-power of the Islamic regime. I can't think of a group of people less likely to cooperate with the U.S. in a "Velvet Revolution" scheme, not least because they are well aware that it would likely end miserably for everyone, especially Iranians.

Don't take my word for it: check out this week's Chicago Tribune piece on what Akbar Ganji, the Islamic regime's bravest internal critic, has to say about Bush's policies on Iran. Read the whole piece, but Ganji is opposed to the U.S. attacking Iran and is also opposed to the U.S. funding a pro-democracy effort in Iran.

"This $75 million [that's the figure Bush initially requested from Congress] will not contribute to the development of democracy in Iran. It will make the work of the pro-democracy movement more difficult. The government of Iran describes all of its opponents as agents of the United States (and) claims they are on the payroll of the Bush administration."

Ganji, who is visiting the U.S. after being released from six years in prison, won't even accept an invitation to the White House.

--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo