The Kirkuk Referendum

Speaking of the Kurds, the International Crisis Group has just issued a new report focused on the Kirkuk question, Iraq and the Kurds: Resolving the Kirkuk Crisis.

It partly blames the Kurdish Regional Government's insistence on a referendum on Kirkuk's future for what it says are growing, explosive tensions urgently requiring a new approach. The ICG complains that the U.S. has been neglecting Kirkuk due to its preoccupation with Baghdad's security, but should now encourage the Kurds to back off the referendum plan in favor of "a fair and acceptable process." The U.S. should also press the Iraqi central government and Turkey "to adjust policies and facilitate a peaceful settlement," the report says.

The ICG warns:

"If the referendum is held later this year over the objections of the other communities, the civil war is very likely to spread to Kirkuk and the Kurdish region, until now Iraq's only area of quiet and progress. If the referendum is postponed without a viable face-saving alternative for the Kurds, their leaders may withdraw from the Maliki cabinet and thus precipitate a governmental crisis in Baghdad just when the security plan is, in theory, supposed to yield its political returns."

--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo