The Stalemate (And the Investigation) Continues

When I left Beirut earlier this month amid the early stirrings of spring, talk of a political settlement to Lebanon's political crisis was also in the air. But I've returned to find nothing happening. Downtown is still filled with the same bored protesters who've been camping out in refugee tents for almost a month now. The only thing that has changed is the weather.

The ongoing split is such that Lebanon sent not one but two delegations this week to the Arab summit: one camp led by Syrian-supported President Emile Lahoud, and the other by American-supported Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. Even with two teams, and even with the Arab League pressing hard for a compromise, the trip produced nothing.

Which perhaps should be no surprise. So far no one has come up with a compromise for one of they key issues dividing the two sides: the fate of a proposed UN tribunal that would pass judgement on suspects in the 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri and the subsequent string of assassinations and bombings.

The government sees the tribunal as the only way Lebanon can free itself of Syrian intelligence forces, whom they accuse of being behind the attacks. But any diminution of Syrian influence in Lebanon would be bad news for Hizballah, the lead opposition group and anti-Israeli militia which is arming itself with weapons coming from across the Syrian border. If Hizballah gets any more power in Siniora's cabinet -- a re-allocation of cabinet seats is the focus of current negotiations -- then they would have the votes necessary to scrap the tribunal.

Meanwhile, the investigation into those killings proceeds, if slowly. While I was away in Kurdistan, the UN investigating commission released its latest report, which revealed some rigorous and high-tech gumshoeing the likes of which the Middle East has probably never before seen. Among other tactics, the UN team is building a 3-D interactive imaging system of the Hariri crime scene, and trying to match anomalies in the DNA from remains of the suspected suicide bomber to any specific populations in Lebanon and Syria, trying identify the killer's place of origin. More importantly, though the report doesn't name names, the commission appears to have ruled out any suspects other than Hariri's political opponents in Lebanon and Syria.

The team also asked for an extension to continue the hunt -- apparently the tense political and security situation here has made it difficult to hire Arabic translators. On Tuesday, the UN Security Council voted unanimously to give them until June 15, 2008 to finish the job. In other words, Lebanon's troubles are a long way from being over.

--Andrew Lee Butters/Beirut