Egypt at the Crossroads

President Hosni Mubarak's regime is looking rattled this week.

In December, the Egyptian leader proposed a series of 34 amendments to the constitution, which he confidently described as a "historic step" to "open the doors to democracy and its practice." Over the past few months, Egyptian officials have been keen to stress that Mubarak is sincere in wanting to push through major changes that will put the country on a sound democratic footing when the 78-year-old president's successor is elected in 2011. The Mubarak-controlled parliament was expected to approve the amendments this week and Egyptian officials were talking about a national referendum on the changes to be held April 4 or 10.

On Monday, the timetable was speeded up, possibly in part because of two developments a day earlier: Amnesty International issued a devastating attack on the proposed amendments, saying that they actually represented "the greatest erosion of rights in 26 years" in Egypt; The Washington Post published a front-page article by Anthony Shadid that Egyptian officials viewed as damaging to Mubarak's image. Egypt's beleaguered opposition has charged that the amendments were designed to pave the way for Mubarak's son Gamal to succeed to the presidency by way of a stacked election in four years. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abl Gheit responded to Amnesty's statement by saying that foreigners had no right to comment on Egypt's internal affairs. Possibly fearing a tsunami of negative international and local publicity, which could help revive the opposition, the parliament approved the amendments Monday night and the government immediately announced that the referendum would take place just seven days later, on March 26.

Mubarak should have little difficulty winning the referendum. But the regime's hopes of managing a smooth political transition that would have international and domestic support are being dashed. The Egyptian opposition, including the most popular opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, are calling for a boycott of the referendum.

Whatever Mubarak's true intentions, the transition will not enjoy the political legitimacy that he sought. That will seriously complicate any plans to advance Gamal Mubarak as the ruling party's candidate for president in 2011. Most Egyptians will see him running and winning the presidency on the basis of a system rigged beforehand in his favor. In his speech proposing the amendments, Mubarak said the country was at a crossroads. By the way things are looking, Egypt may be wandering down a blind alley.

--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo