Will Ayman Nour Go Free?

Is Mubarak's government getting ready to free Ayman Nour?

Condi Rice pointedly failed to publicly raise the case of the imprisoned opposition leader during her talks with Mubarak in Egypt two weeks ago. The Bush administration has clearly determined that high profile advocacy of the democracy agenda may be counterproductive, in that it angers allies like Mubarak, falsely raises expectations in the freedom movement and doesn't bring quick results. There is a sense among many pro-democracy folks in Cairo that democracy institutions, like civil society organizations and a free press, must be strengthened before you can achieve useful results in elections or even on the street. I wonder if now that Mubarak's government is intent on enacting constitutional changes this year, and the U.S. is laying off the democracy talk, whether the government is quietly preparing to release Nour from prison as a sign of its good intentions. TIME's Amany Radwan sent me the following E-mail, for example:

Over the past ten days, local appeals for the release of Ayman Nour have been mounting. Nour who was found guilty of fraud was sentenced in December 2005 for five years. The daily independent newpaper Al Masri Al Youm published a letter from Ayman Nour in which he details his deteriorating medical condition and expresses his urgent need for proper medical supervision which he says he is not getting in jail. Otherwise, he wrote, he could die. Several Egyptians commentators responded to that letter urging President Hosni Mubarak to pardon Ayman Nour. Following a visit to Nour in jail, his uncle and doctor also appealed on the pages of Al Masri Al Youm to Mubarak to transfer Nour to a hospital as he was suffering from a serious heart condition as well as complications from diabetes. That same evening, star TV presenter Amr Adeeb appealed to Mubarak through his Cairo Today Daily Talk show that is hugely popular all over the Arab World to release Nour because of humanitarian reasons. Adeeb said that it would be a great generosity if Nour is released and that such a gesture from the Egyptian leader would be welcomed and appreciated inside and outside Egypt. Adeeb alluded to the fact that as a consequence of his sentence and his deteriorating health, Nour's political ambitions are now over and that he should be given the chance to live in dignity with his wife and children.

Adeeb is correct. Handing Nour a five-year prison term for election fraud appeared dubious as well as mean. After all, Nour had the guts to challenge Mubarak in the 2005 campaign for president, he spoke his mind like candidates should in a democracy, and then got slammed with the legal case when he came in a distant second. As long as Nour is in prison, it will be a cloud over everything Mubarak does--a pity, if the 78-year-old ruler really does intend to go through with democratic reforms during his remaining years in office.

By Scott MacLeod/Cairo