Blood in Beirut

Horrible scenes on the streets of Beirut today. The clashes are certainly reminiscent of the sorts of disturbances that preceded the outbreak of the all-out civil war in 1975, but let's keep our cool.
Indeed there are worrying trends. These clashes that broke out among students at Arab University may become contagious and spark more of the same along Shiite-Sunni lines. The country is embroiled in a dangerous test of wills at the highest political levels--pitting Shiite Hizballah and its Christian ally Michel Aoun against the government of Sunni leader Fouad Siniora--and pitting Iran and Syria against the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. It was inevitable that Hizballah's decision to push its demand for Siniora's resignation into the streets with moves like Tuesday's general strike would heighten tensions on the streets.
But there are indications that this will not escalate into a full-scale civil war. Both the government and Hizballah are already calling on their supporters to get off the streets. Both sides well know that they are not in a position of extending their power over the whole country at the expense of the other. While Sunnis and anti-Hizballah Christians are no doubt beginning to re-arm, there has been no sign that they want to take on Hizballah's military wing by force. So far, the Lebanese army remains very much intact, and is working toward restoring calm in Beirut. Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah indicated yesterday that the group is back peddling on its intention of toppling Siniora--that may be his realization that things are getting out of hand.
Siniora is in Paris today, where he got substantial international aid for Lebanon's re-construction. He also needs to demonstrate national leadership and show some accomodation to Hizballah's concerns--it clearly represents a large section of Lebanese society. For his part, Nasrallah needs to back off his provocations and recognize the risks he is taking.

--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo