The Morning After in Lebanon

For a while yesterday evening, it appeared that the Hizballah-led opposition might continue with the forced general strike that paralyzed Beirut and other parts of Lebanon. Protesters were reinforcing several of the barricades that had cut off the main roads into the capital. When the call finally came to suspend the strike, at least three people had been killed, and over 130 wounded in the day's clashes.

By this morning, as street crews cleared rubble road blocks and as metal scavengers collected the steel wire from charred car tires, it had become clear that the country has moved closer to outright sectarian confrontation than anytime since the 15-year Lebanese Civil War ended in 1990. "We are at a dangerous crossroads," said Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. "Either we are heading to a civil war, or we are heading to a dialogue."

Unfortunately, dialogue appears for now to be the less likely of the possible outcomes. The opposition has vowed to continue their actions. "This was a warning to the government," according to a joint opposition statement read by a Hizballah MP to local papers. "Expect even greater escalation, far worse than today's."

It is also now clearer how future confrontations might occur. Both Hizballah and the army are unlikely to engage in open clashes. Hizballah's regulars are too disciplined, and the Lebanese army is too weak. (The army, which mirrors the country's sectarian make-up, would risk breaking apart if it acted against one side in the crisis.)

But other opposition parties (such as the Shia Muslim Amal movement) that lack Hizballah's organizational discipline have been less able to control their angry young men. And in the absence of action from the army to keep Lebanon from being forced shut by protests, pro-government groups are likely to take the law into their own hands. Already, some pro-government leaders have made statements that appeared to give the green light to their rank-and-file to stop what they are calling a coup attempt. "We vow that such a toppling in the street will not take place, no matter what the consequences," said Lebanon's Sunni Grand Mufti, Sheikh Mohammed Rashid Qabbani.

And the sectarian fault lines are also clear. The line-up is intra-Muslim (Shia against Sunni) and intra-Christian (between two factions that fought each other during the Civil War and who now find themselves on opposite sides of the political crisis. ) Such is the sense of deja vu that Beirut's Daily Star ran a photo essay of the sectarian fighting titled: "A Reminder of the Bad Old Days."

By Andrew Lee Butters/Beirut