Ahmadinejad vs. Iran (2)

In Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's internal struggle to keep the initiative in Iran's foreign policy, keep an eye on Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council.
Ahmadinejad was speaking loudly again Sunday, dismissing U.N. Resolution 1737 as being "born dead," adding, "Even if they issue 10 more such resolutions, it will not affect Iran's economy and politics." Larijani, meanwhile, was typically pursuing diplomacy on a quieter level. He arrived in Damascus suddenly for talks with Bashar Assad, in part to demonstrate Iran's regional influence as Syria hosted talks between feuding Palestinian leaders, U.S.-backed Mahmoud Abbas and Iran-backed Khaled Meshal. Larijani's visit is also part of Iran's efforts to cool down Sunni-Shiite tensions in the region and thwart what Iran sees as Washington's efforts to get Sunni Arab countries to isolate Iran in the region.
While Ahmadinejad is the ideological face of Iran's foreign policy, Larijani is the pragmatic face. Supreme Leader Ayatullah Khamenei has the ultimate say in foreign policy, which is made in the Supreme National Security Council that Larijani heads and of which Ahmadinejad is but one member. Larijani and Ahmadinejad both hail from the conservative camp of Iranian politics, but they are markedly different in their approaches as well as their styles as they tussle for dominance over Iran's foreign policy. Whereas Ahmadinejad minimizes the damage done to the country by confrontation with the West, Larijani is keenly aware of it and tries to avoid it. (Read my interview with Larijani last February, Part I and Part II.) Larijani was in the forefront of efforts to force Ahmadinejad to backpeddle on his threats to wipe Israel off the map, for instance. But in his determination to control Iran's foreign policy, Ahmadinejad undercut and embarrassed Larijani last year by saying Iran would never suspend uranium enrichment--just after Larijani suggested to EU negotiator Javier Solana that Iran would consider doing just that.
Ahmadinejad is whipping up nationalist sentiments again as he battles an array of domestic critics; he is promising Iranians something to celebrate for next month's 28th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution--it is expected to be an announcement that Iranian nuclear technicians succeeded in linking six centrifuge cascades in their work to enrich uranium. That will bring further international condemnation just as Iran faces a U.N. deadline under Resolution 1737 to halt enrichment activities or face further sanctions.
But some Iranians are expecting that Larijani will use the occasion to make his own move to regain the upper hand. Larijani favors negotiations as a means of convincing the world that Iran has no intentions of making a bomb and as a means of limiting diplomatic fallout. A leaked Iranian government report published by Le Monde Saturday frankly admits the negative effects of sanctions on the country. The Europeans, Russians and Chinese also prefer to negotiate, granted that Iran can offer practical solutions and not just talk for the sake of buying time.
If Larijani manages to elbow Ahmadinejad out of the way and get the broad Iranian foreign policy establishment behind him, it will constitute an important opportunity for the Bush administration, which has labeled Iran part of an "axis of evil," to test whether Iran is willing to be a constructive player in sorting out the multiplying crises in the Middle East. The question then may become whether the pragmatists can overcome the ideologues not only in Tehran but in Washington, too.

--By Scott MacLeod/Cairo