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Hizballah's Conundrum
A note on the Lebanon mess, from Nick Blanford in Beirut:
"Hizballah's No. 2 Sheikh Naim Qassem was in Saudi Arabia last month for a ground-breaking visit with King Abdullah. The visit appears to be an attempt by both Iran, which backs Hizballah, and the Saudis to ease Sunni-Shiite tensions and allay Riyadh's deep suspicions of Tehran's intentions in the Mideast. It also had the aim of finding a compromise to resolve Lebanon's six-week political crisis pitting the Hizballah-led opposition against the Saudi- and American-backed Siniora government.
"The crisis has soured relations between Shiites and Sunnis, eroding the plaudits Hizballah won across the Muslim world last summer for its stubborn resistance against Israel's onslaught. Hizballah's allies in the opposition are keeping up a steady diet of tough rhetoric, threatening heightened street action in the coming days, but there is a sense that the campaign to bring down the government has run out of steam. Hizballah possibly could be more willing now to accept a face-saving way out of the mess. I don't think they expected the government to be so resilient.
"Still, a resolution to the crisis won't necessarily be of much help to Syria given the looming conclusion of the UN investigation into Rafic Hariri's murder and the formation of an international tribunal to try the accused. Hizballah doesn't take direct orders from Damascus, contrary to what many people think. But it is sensitive to the needs of the Syrian regime, as is Iran. It will be interesting to see how Hizballah maneuvers in the coming months to satisfy its often conflicting interests and obligations to Iran, Syria and its Shiite constituents in Lebanon."
By Scott MacLeod/Cairo
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